Current geopolitical flux in world could gravitate towards a bipolar global order where the US and China are two poles. Critically examine. Also, what is your opinion on what should be India’s approach to two countries in such a situation?

Approach:

First define Bipolar world Order. Than in first part of question start with the indications for bipolar world order. Than discuss why it can’t be said to be bipolar world order. In second part discuss India’s strategy in current flux.

Introduction:

Bipolar world order is a system in which the global economic, military and cultural influence is largely shaped by two antagonistic states. World is witnessing geopolitical flux with assertiveness of China challenging current multilateral world with USA enjoying power of supremacy.

World moving towards bipolar world order:

USA and China are seen as two major powers with the control over economic, military, political (share in global institutions and bilateral relations). But this rise of China has seen rising conflict between two powers. For ex (explain each of these)

• Trade conflict (Write a line about it)
• Theatre of war in South China sea
• Concept of Indo-Pacific as place of new war games
• Technological war for supremacy
• Other powers aligning with one or other (Ex- Russia strategic partnership with Chin; QUAD)

World is not in bipolar:

• Cold war construct: Current world order is not ideologically divided as in cold war. Most major economies today have adopted liberalism for economy (political system might differ).
• Multilateralism: India, Japan, Russia, Germany, UK etc. and grouping like BRICS, G20 etc have significant power and role in current world order.
• USA still supreme economically and militarily: USA’s economy and defence budget is far superior. Ex- Defence budget of USA is almost 4-times that of China.
• Russia still a major player: Russia still has major role w.r.t geopolitics and its defence advancement. At the same time it not only has concerns with USA, but also long-term border issues with China.
• Global governance: World has evolved since 1945 and today global institutions in spite of challenges play a major role like WHO, WTO, UNSC etc.

India’s approach to current geopolitical flux:

• Foreign policy determined by national interest and not sentimentalism. Ex- Following groupings like QUAD which could benefit by exerting pressure on China
• Strategic autonomy: Fine balance of relationship between USA-Russia, USA-China.
• Complex interdependence: Ex- China is still an important trade partner (e.g. API for pharmaceuticals, electronic, solar industry) and thus needs to follow negotiations to ensure peace on border, while preparing for its defence simultaneously.
• Multilateralism: Current challenge can be met by multilateralism from forms like ASEAN, UN, WTO with India taking a lead by playing role of peace maker between parties.
• Net security provider in Indian Ocean region with support of like-minded countries which has become arena of conflict in recent times.

Conclusion:

Current geopolitical flux is a big challenge with conflict rising between USA and China. Yet, it can’t be said to be bipolar world order as context and realities are different.