El Nino year or neutral phase likely in 2023; transition may lead to monsoon deficit: Experts

Subject: Geography

Context-

The La Niña weather phenomenon, which entered its third year in September this year, is unlikely to continue through 2023 instead, there is a likelihood of a neutral or El Niño phase emerging next year.

The ENSO cycle-

El Niño is characterised by warmer-than-average waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and a slowdown of trade winds (which blow east to west), and La Niña by cooler-than-average waters and intensified trade winds.
A neutral phase emerges when conditions are neither warm nor cool.
El Niño, La Niña and neutral phases are a part of ENSO, climate phenomena that alter atmospheric circulation.
This impacts temperature and precipitation across the globe.

Impact on India-

The La Niña phase began in September 2020 and will likely extend through December 2022.
La Niña is expected to transition into ENSO-neutral during Feb-Apr 2023.
The western part of the Pacific Ocean is warm. Winds need to push the waters towards the central and eastern parts of the ocean, where ENSO evolves or switches phases.
The heat content below the sea surface in the western Pacific Ocean is increasing.
A neutral summer phase is usually bad news for India.
India could see deficits in monsoon during this shift from La Niña winter to neutral summer.
Monsoon can be below normal by up to 15 per cent. But this could change if the Arctic produces late-season heavy rainfall, similar to what happened between 2021-2022.

Triple-dip La-Nina-

A “triple-dip” La Nina is a multiyear cooling of the surface temperature of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which can cause droughts, fierce winds and heavy rainfall.
According to WMO, the current La Nina is projected to span three consecutive northern hemisphere winters.
Since 1950, the Earth has witnessed a triple La Niña thrice, including the current one.
A La Niña phase four years in a row has not been recorded so far.