Population Priorities

Subject: Geography

Sec: Human and human geo

Context:

The Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that a high-powered committee will be constituted to consider the challenges arising from “fast population growth and demographic changes”. But no survey can substitute the Census, which is yet to be conducted for this decade.

Census in India

Basic data on the state of human resources, demography, culture, and economic structure at the local, regional, and national levels are provided by the Population Census.
In India, the census enumeration process is carried out every ten years, having started with the first non-synchronous census in 1872.
The first synchronous census was conducted in 1881 by Census Commissioner of India W.C. Plowden, during the British colonial era.
The Ministry of Home Affairs’ Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India is in charge of carrying out the decadal census.
The Indian Constitution’s Union List, entry 69, contains information about population censuses.
The 1948 Census Act governs how the census is carried out.

Postponing the decennial Census

With the Union government repeatedly postponing the decennial Census — it has not been conducted for the first time in a decade since 1881.
It is evident that India is now the most populous country, but the Sample Registration System statistical report in 2020 and the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21) have shown that the total fertility rate (TFR) in India has fallen to 2 overall, with only a few States — Bihar (2.98), Meghalaya (2.91), Uttar Pradesh (2.35), Jharkhand (2.26) and Manipur (2.17) — having a TFR above 2.1.
Clearly, the high population growth of the kind seen in the 20th century has been largely arrested — the TFR fell from 5.7 in 1950 to 2 in 2020, albeit differentially across regions.
The population share of the southern States, reduced to 21% in 2011 from 26% in 1951, largely a consequence of a rapid reduction in TFR due to better socio-economic outcomes and education, and despite higher migration to these States.

Role of Surveys

While the surveys mentioned are robust and necessary, they are no substitute for the comprehensive Census; the continued delay in its implementation reflects poorly on the Union Home Ministry that is motivated by other priorities rather than executing a vital programme of Indian governance.

Democracy shift in India

The demographic shift in India and rising life expectancy have resulted in challenges and opportunities.
The much-touted demographic dividend — the relatively high proportion of the working age population in the developing world — is meaningful only if there are sufficient jobs and if they enjoy some degree of social security that will help them when they age.
With high unemployment and the creation of non-farm jobs, which will increase productivity and cater to skilled employment, relatively slack in the last few years, there is the possibility of the country squandering this dividend.
The “high-powered” committee will be performing a crucial role if it engages meaningfully in addressing questions related to jobs and social security and the challenges citizens face due to rapid urbanization and mechanization of work.