Natalist policies the way to address the ageing population problem?

Sub: Geo

Sec: Human Geo

Context:

Andhra Pradesh CM N. Chandrababu Naidu raised concerns about the ageing population and suggested increasing birth rates.
Tamil Nadu CM M.K. Stalin mentioned that upcoming Census and delimitation processes might influence family planning decisions, potentially discouraging small families.

India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR):
- Dropped to 1.9 in 2021, below the replacement level of 2.1, indicating population stabilization.
- However, there are sharp regional variations.
Clarifications on Population Growth:
- Despite lower fertility rates, India’s population will continue to grow until around 2070 due to population momentum (large number of women entering reproductive age).
- Population growth will stop earlier in India compared to the world average (which may grow till 2080).
Birth and Death Rate Transition:
- By 2060-2070, India’s death rate is expected to surpass its birth rate.
- Regional Divide: Northern states have higher population growth, while southern states experience slower growth.
Key Concerns:
- Sustaining the Population: Balancing the working-age and non-working-age population.
- Federal Representation: Issues with how population counts affect state representation and resources.

Data on Ageing:
- In 2021, the elderly population:
  - Bihar: 7.7% (below the national average of 10.1%).
  - Kerala: 16.5% and Tamil Nadu: 13.7% (both above national average).
- Projected for 2036:
  - Kerala: Elderly population expected to rise to 22.8%.
  - Tamil Nadu: Expected to reach 20.8%.
  - Bihar: Increase from 7.7% to 11%.
Factors Contributing to Ageing:
- Reduction in fertility rates.
- Increasing life expectancy in southern states.

Ageing is part of natural demographic progression.
Concerns should focus on:
- Health challenges (non-communicable diseases like heart issues, cancers).
- Employment opportunities for older individuals in an evolving economy.
- Migration and gender inequality.
Dynamic View of Ageing:
- Life expectancy is increasing.
- Future elderly populations will differ in characteristics from the current elderly, making it wrong to label them all as unproductive.

Concerns with Increasing Birth Rates:
- India once worried about a ‘population bomb’ and enforced policies like forced sterilization.
- Now, there is a shift towards encouraging larger families (e.g., Naidu’s suggestion to require more children for election eligibility).
Young Couples’ Reluctance to Have Children:
- Worldwide Trends: Countries like Hungary, Poland, Greece, Finland, and Sweden have adopted pro-natalist measures (increased maternity/paternity leave, child support, tax benefits).
- Why These Don’t Work:
  - High cost of living.
  - Expensive childcare and education.
  - Opportunity costs for women, who bear the brunt of unpaid childcare and may face career setbacks.

Key demographics of India:

Source: TH