Global carbon dioxide emissions set to rise 0.8% over 2023, India’s contribution to go up 4.6%

Global carbon dioxide emissions set to rise 0.8% over 2023, India’s contribution to go up 4.6%

Sub : Env

Sec Climate change

Rising Global Carbon Emissions:

• A recent peer-reviewed report by the Global Carbon Budget (GCB) collective highlights trends in carbon emissions.

1. Global Carbon Emission Trends

• Increase in Emissions:
  • Global fossil CO₂ emissions are projected to rise by 0.8% in 2024, lower than the 1.2% increase observed in 2023.
  • This suggests a deceleration in the growth rate but does not indicate a peak in fossil fuel emissions.

2. Major Contributors to Emissions (2023 Data)

• Top Emitters:
  • China 31% of global fossil CO₂ emissions, United States: 13%, India: 8%, EU-27: 7%
  • These four regions account for 59% of global fossil CO₂ emissions; the rest of the world contributed 41%.

3. Per Capita CO₂ Emissions

• The global average was 1.3 tonnes of carbon per person in 2023.
  • United States: 3.9 tonnes, China: 2.3 tonnes, EU-27: 1.5 tonnes, India: 0.6 tonnes
  • The data highlights significant disparities in per capita emissions, reflecting varying levels of economic development and energy consumption.

4. Projected Emissions for 2024:

• By year-end, fossil CO₂ emissions are expected to:
  • Increase by 4.6% in India
  • Increase by 0.2% in China
  • Decrease by 0.6% in the United States
• Absolute Emissions (Projected for 2024):
  • China: 12 billion tonnes, United States: 4.9 billion tonnes, India: 3.2 billion tonnes

5. Sector-wise Emission Growth

• Emissions from:
  • Coal: Expected to increase by 0.2%
  • Oil: Expected to increase by 0.9%
  • Gas: Expected to increase by 2.4%
• Emissions from land-use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) averaged 1.1 billion tonnes of carbon per year.

6. Rising Atmospheric CO₂ Levels:

• The concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere is expected to reach 422.5 ppm in 2024.
• This is 52% higher than pre-industrial levels.

8. Paris Agreement Targets and the 1.5°C Challenge

• The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to below 2°C, with an emphasis on striving for 1.5°C.
• Many countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) align with a 1.5°C pathway, at least on paper. However, the GCB report expresses doubt about achieving this target.

9. The Remaining Carbon Budget:

• The GCB report estimates there is a 50% chance that the remaining carbon budget to stay within the 1.5°C limit will be exhausted in approximately six years.
• In January 2024, the mean global temperature (averaged over the previous 12 months) temporarily exceeded the 1.5°C threshold.
• The report notes significant uncertainties but warns that the time left to meet the 1.5°C target and avoid severe climate impacts is nearly depleted.