China’s population drops for first time in 60 years

Subject :Geography

Section : Human Geography

Concept :

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported a drop of roughly 850,000 people for a population of 1.41175 billion in 2022, the first dip since 1961.

Chinese Policies related to declining population

One-Child Policy :
- One cause behind the fall in numbers in China is the one-child policy imposed between 1980 and 2015.
- This policy limited the number of children couples could have to one.
- But as the proportion of those in the working-age population began reducing, the policy became a matter of concern.
- Hence, from 2016, all married couples were allowed to have a second child. Again, in 2021, China allowed couples to have three children.
High cost of living :
- High education costs and costs of living have put many people off having children, even as a number of incentives have been announced by the government.
Zero-Covid policies :
- China’s stringent zero-Covid policies that were in place for three years have caused further damage to the country’s demographic outlook.

Where does India stand?

Population :
- India has not conducted an official headcount Census after 2011.
- But going by the United Nations’ projections, its population stood at 1,417.2 million in 2022 (more than China’s) and is expected to reach 1,428.6 million in 2023.
Mortality and fertility :
- The crude death rate (CDR) — the number of persons dying per year per 1,000 population – has fell down to 7.3-7.4 for India in 2020.
- The total fertility rate (TFR) — the number of babies an average woman bears over her lifetime — came down to 2 during 2019-21.
- A TFR of 2.1 is considered as replacement-level fertility.
- Eg., a woman having two children replaces herself and her partner with two new lives.
- Since all infants may not survive, the replacement TFR is taken at slightly above two.

Reason for increasing populations amidst declining TFR

The TFR is the average number of births by women aged 15-49 based on surveys for a particular period/year.
Populations can keep growing even with TFRs falling. De-growth requires TFRs to remain below replacement levels for extended periods.
Hence, the effects of declining TFRs may reflect only after a couple of generations.
China’s TFR dipped below replacement first in 1991 and its population peaked in 2021 (2022 saw the decline in China’s population).
It took over 30 years for below-replacement fertility rates to translate into negative population growth.