Could global warming impede weather and climate forecasting?

Sub: Env

Sec: Climatology

Climate Change in 2023-2024:

Record warming in 2023-2024 showcasing various climate extremes
Potential crossing of the 1.5°C warming threshold
The global average temperature for the last year was the highest ever documented, at 1.63⁰C above pre-industrial levels.
- 2015:Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature increase to below two degrees Centigrade above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5⁰C.
- April 2024: Study by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research estimates climate change could cut 17% of global GDP by 2050, at a cost of US$38 trillion per year.
Unpredicted levels of warming, possibly due to additional factors
Challenges in predicting climate patterns and natural variabilities
Importance of improving climate models and predictions

Current Climate Situation:

2023-2024 saw record warming with various extreme weather events
The world may have crossed the 1.5°C warming threshold (that is, the earth’s average surface temperature has increased by more than 1.5o C over the pre-industrial average)
Warming levels higher than expected, possibly due to factors like underwater volcano emissions and wildfire CO2

Prediction Challenges:

2023-2024 climate patterns differed from predictions (e.g., monsoon behavior, hurricane seasons)
Natural variabilities (El Niño, La Niña, Indian Ocean Dipole) behaving unexpectedly
Uncertainty about how global warming affects natural climate modes

Future of Climate Predictions:

Need for improved models and observational networks
Exploration of whether predictability decreases with continued warming
Integration of new technologies (AI, machine learning, sensor-fit drones)
- Meteorologists predicted the 2023 El Niño as early as in the spring of that year, which is remarkable. But the level of warming during 2023-2024 has caught them, and the public, by surprise because it was much higher than expected from the addition of the so-called mini-global warming by the El Niño to the ongoing background warming.

Climate Projections:

Current projections use models based on various factors (emissions, population growth, mitigation policies)
Short-term uncertainties (1-2 decades) depend on model uncertainties and natural variabilities
Long-term uncertainties relate to imagined scenarios driving simulations