Could global warming impede weather and climate forecasting?

  • September 26, 2024
  • Posted by: OptimizeIAS Team
  • Category: DPN Topics
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Could global warming impede weather and climate forecasting?

Sub: Env

Sec: Climatology

Climate Change in 2023-2024:

  • Record warming in 2023-2024 showcasing various climate extremes
  • Potential crossing of the 1.5°C warming threshold
  • The global average temperature for the last year was the highest ever documented, at 1.630C above pre-industrial levels.
    • 2015:Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature increase to below two degrees Centigrade above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.50C.
    • April 2024: Study by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research estimates climate change could cut 17% of global GDP by 2050, at a cost of US$38 trillion per year.
  • Unpredicted levels of warming, possibly due to additional factors
  • Challenges in predicting climate patterns and natural variabilities
  • Importance of improving climate models and predictions

Current Climate Situation:

  • 2023-2024 saw record warming with various extreme weather events
  • The world may have crossed the 1.5°C warming threshold (that is, the earth’s average surface temperature has increased by more than 1.5o C over the pre-industrial average)
  • Warming levels higher than expected, possibly due to factors like underwater volcano emissions and wildfire CO2

Prediction Challenges:

  • 2023-2024 climate patterns differed from predictions (e.g., monsoon behavior, hurricane seasons)
  • Natural variabilities (El Niño, La Niña, Indian Ocean Dipole) behaving unexpectedly
  • Uncertainty about how global warming affects natural climate modes

Future of Climate Predictions:

  • Need for improved models and observational networks
  • Exploration of whether predictability decreases with continued warming
  • Integration of new technologies (AI, machine learning, sensor-fit drones)
    • Meteorologists predicted the 2023 El Niño as early as in the spring of that year, which is remarkable. But the level of warming during 2023-2024 has caught them, and the public, by surprise because it was much higher than expected from the addition of the so-called mini-global warming by the El Niño to the ongoing background warming.

Climate Projections:

  • Current projections use models based on various factors (emissions, population growth, mitigation policies)
  • Short-term uncertainties (1-2 decades) depend on model uncertainties and natural variabilities
  • Long-term uncertainties relate to imagined scenarios driving simulations
Could global warming impede weather and climate forecasting? Environment