El Nino: How the climate pattern may prolong food inflation

Subject: geography

Section: Physical geography Climatology

Context:

The latest El Nino climate phenomenon has arrived, threatening floods in some areas of the world and droughts in others. Previous disruptive weather patterns cost the global economy trillions and stoked inflation.

El-Nino phenomenon:

El Nino, which is Spanish for Little Boy, is marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator.
- This weakens the trade winds — east-west winds that blow near the Equator.
Due to El Niño, easterly trade winds that blow from the Americas towards Asia change direction to turn into westerlies.
It thus brings warm water from the western Pacific towards America.
It fuels flooding to the Americas, tropical storms to the Pacific and brings droughts to many other parts of the world, including southern Africa.

Effects of El Niño Phenomenon

Weather – El Niño causes dry, warm winters in Northern U.S. and Canada and increased flooding risk on the U.S. gulf coast and southeastern U.S.
- It brings drought to Indonesia and Australia.
- In India, an El Nino event is strongly linked to suppressed rainfall in the monsoon season.
Marine resource – Under El Niño, upwelling (deeper waters rise towards the surface) of deeper waters is reduced, thus reducing phytoplankton off the coast.
- Fish that eat phytoplankton are affected, followed by other organisms higher up the food chain.
Warm water – Warmer water carries tropical species towards colder areas, disrupting multiple ecosystems.
Airflow above the ocean – Heat redistribution on the surface impacts airflows above the ocean.

The economic impact of El Nino:

Following El Nino in 1982-83, the financial effects were felt for another half-decade, totalling some $4.1 trillion (€3.7 trillion).
After the 1997-98 El Nino season, the damage to global economic growth was $5.7 trillion.
Researchers estimated that the negative economic effects from the latest El Nino season could reach $3 trillion between now and 2029.
Most hit sectors:
- Fisheries industries
- The big agricultural regions of Africa, South America and even several regions of North America.
- If harvests are poor and infrastructure is damaged by storms, the insurance sector will also suffer.
Food, energy inflation spikes:
- big agricultural regions of Africa, South America and even several regions of North America. Then, if harvests are poor and infrastructure is damaged by storms, the insurance sector will also suffer.
- The latest El Nino phase could be the warmest and costliest ever.
- The rise in prices of Coffee, Cocoa and sugar is rising.