Exit polls and the rules governing it in India: All your questions answered

Sub: Polity

Sec: Elections

Context:

Recently, the Lok Sabha Election 2024 Exit Poll Results 2024 were out on 1 June 2024.

More on news:

Recently, the Lok Sabha Election 2024 was held in the country to elect a new Prime Minister and formation of a new central government.
These general elections are conducted in seven phases to elect members from all the 543 seats of the Lok Sabha.

What are exit polls?

An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations.
A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll.
Exit poll is a post-voting poll, which is conducted just after a voter walks out after casting his or her vote.
Such polls aim at predicting the actual result on the basis of the information collected from voters.
The inception of exit polls in India traces back to 1957, during the second Lok Sabha elections, with the pioneering initiative led by the Indian Institute of Public Opinion.
Exit polls are conducted after the culmination of the last phase of voting, in accordance with the guidelines set by the Election Commission of India.
Distinguished from opinion polls, which precede elections, exit polls entail surveys administered to voters as they exit polling stations post casting their ballots.
These surveys encompass a spectrum of inquiries, delving into voter motivations and party preferences.
Exit polls entail the collection of samples, representing diverse demographics and geographical regions, to gauge public sentiment towards political parties and their performance.

Purpose of Exit Polls:

Exit polls are also used to collect demographic data about voters and to find out why they voted as they did.
Since actual votes are cast anonymously, polling is the only way of collecting this information.
Exit polls have historically and throughout the world been used as a check against, and rough indicator of, the degree of election fraud.
Some examples of this include the 2004 Venezuela recall referendum, and the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election.
They are used to command a mandate as well as to determine whether or not a particular political campaign was successful or not.

Regulatory framework surrounding exit polls in India:

The Representation of the People’s Act, 1951, under Section 126A, stipulates that exit polls cannot be conducted or disseminated until the final phase of voting concludes.
No person shall conduct any exit poll and publish or publicize by means of the print or electronic media or disseminate in any other manner, whatsoever, the result of an exit poll during such period as may be notified by the Election Commission in this regard.
Section 126A also stipulates that any person who contravenes the provisions of this section shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to two years or with fine or with both.
In previous electoral cycles, the Election Commission specified that television or radio broadcasts should refrain from discussing election-related matters until such results are formally announced by the Election Commission of India, unless such results are carried with clear disclaimer that they are unofficial or incomplete or partial results or projections which should not be taken as final results.

What are Opinion Polls?

Opinion polls are survey research to determine voter preference among the candidates running for office and predict the outcome of elections.
An opinion poll, sometimes simply referred to as a poll, is a kind of voter behavior survey conducted to gauge the public opinion before voting takes place, while an exit poll happens right after voting.