Four possible consequences of El Niño returning in 2023

Four possible consequences of El Niño returning in 2023

Subject: Geography

Section:  Physical  Geography

Context: It’s possible that Earth’s rising temperature will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold of the Paris agreement some time after the peak of the El Niño in 2024.

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• Every two to seven years, the equatorial Pacific Ocean gets up to 3°C warmer (what we know as an El Niño event) or colder (La Niña) than usual, triggering a cascade of effects felt around the world. This cycle is called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) because every El Niño is naturally followed by a La Niña and vice versa, with some months of neutral conditions in between events.
• It is not surprising for La Niña conditions to last two consecutive years, but a three-year La Niña, which the world has had since 2020, is more rare.
• The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has reported that the equatorial Pacific Ocean will return to its neutral state between March and May of 2023, and it is likely that El Niño conditions will develop during the northern hemisphere’s autumn and winter.
• Possible Consequence of El Niño returning in 2023:
  • Likelihood of exceeding 1.5°C
    • During an El Niño, the ocean transfers some of that excess heat and moisture to the atmosphere
    • On top of the global warming trend, a strong El Niño can add up to 0.2°C to the average temperature of the Earth. The hottest year on record was 2016, during a particularly strong El Niño.
    • Since the planet has already warmed by around 1.2°C relative to pre-industrial times and El Niño adds some extra heat to the atmosphere, it’s possible that Earth’s rising temperature will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold of the Paris agreement some time after the peak of the El Niño in 2024.
  • More heat, drought and fires in Australia
    • Australia has had three years of above average rainfall due to prolonged La Niña conditions that brought severe floods, especially in the east.
    • During El Niño, scientists expect the opposite: less rain, higher temperatures and increased fire risk, especially during winter and spring in the southern hemisphere.
  • Slower carbon uptake in South America
    • During an El Niño, the Amazon rainforest dries and vegetation growth slows so that less CO₂ is absorbed from the atmosphere, a trend repeated in the tropical forests of Africa, India and Australia.
  • Cold winters in northern Europe
    • During El Niño winters, both pressure centres lose strength, and the jet stream brings wetter conditions to southern Europe.
    • The largest effect is observed in northern Europe, however, where winters become drier and colder. A frosty 2023-24 winter season is likely if El Niño ramps up sufficiently by then.

About El Nino https://optimizeias.com/el-nino/

About La Nina https://optimizeias.com/la-nina-2/

About ENSO Cycle https://optimizeias.com/el-nino-year-or-neutral-phase-likely-in-2023-transition-may-lead-to-monsoon-deficit-experts/