IMD forecasts ‘normal’ monsoon no El Nino

Subject: Geography

Section: Climatology

Rainfall is expected to be 99 per cent of the historical average for the country during June-September. The sanguine forecast is based on “La Niña” conditions prevailing and likely to continue through the four-month monsoon season.
La Niña is the opposite of El Niño — an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific waters usually causing heavy rains around South America, but also drought in the other western end whose effects percolate to India.
Besides La Niña, which is generally favourable for the Indian monsoon, the IMD is counting on a “neutral” Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
A “negative” IOD, wherein the eastern Indian Ocean waters off Indonesia and Australia turn unusually warm relative to the western part, is considered bad for the monsoon. The IMD believes that this time there will be La Niña and “neutral” IOD, at least till early in the season.