Indian Institute of Astrophysics astronomers find new method to predict amplitude of upcoming solar cycle

Sub: Science

Sec: Space

Context:

Astronomers from the Indian Institute of Astrophysics (IIA) have found a new method to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle.
The astronomers have discovered a new correlation using 100 years of solar data from the IIA’s Kodaikanal Solar Observatory.

Space weather:

The main components of space weather are the solar wind, coronal mass ejections, and solar flares.
They can compress the magnetosphere of the Earth and trigger geomagnetic storms, which can affect communication and power transmission, damage spacecraft electronics, and threaten the lives of astronauts.

Solar cycle:

The solar cycle is the cycle that the Sun’s magnetic field goes through approximately every 11 years.
Solar maximum: Period of highest rate of solar activity during the cycle; large number of sunspots appear during this period.
Solar minimum: Period of lowest rate of solar activity during the cycle; sunspots and solar flare activity diminishes.

Number of sun spots

In a recently-published work, IIA researchers discovered that the width of the supergranular cells on the solar surface during the minimum year of the solar cycle is related to the number of sunspots seen during the subsequent solar cycle maximum.
This simple method can be used in space weather forecasting.

Sun Spots

Sunspots are areas that appear dark on the surface of the Sun.
They appear dark because they are cooler than other parts of the Sun’s surface.
It’s cool because they form at areas where magnetic fields are particularly strong. These magnetic fields are so strong that they keep some of the heat within the Sun from reaching the surface.
Most Sunspots appear in groups that have their own magnetic field, whose polarity reverses during every solar cycle, which takes around 11 years. In every such cycle, the number of Sunspots increases and decreases.

The magnetic field lines near sunspots often tangle, cross, and reorganize. This can cause a sudden explosion of energy called a solar flare.
Solar flares release a lot of radiation into space. If a solar flare is very intense, the radiation it releases can interfere with our radio communications here on Earth.
Solar flares are sometimes accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME for short).
CMEs are huge bubbles of radiation and particles from the Sun. They explode into space at very high speed when the Sun’s magnetic field lines suddenly reorganize.
When charged particles from a CME reach area near Earth, they can trigger intense lights in the sky, called auroras.
When particularly strong, a CME can also interfere in power utility grids, which at their worst can cause electricity shortages and power outages. Solar flares and CMEs are the most powerful explosions in our solar system.