Monitoring Asteroid 2024 YR4

Sub : Sci

Sec: Space sector

Why in News

The United Nations’ planetary defence organizations are closely tracking an asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, which has a small probability of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. While current estimates suggest a 98.7% chance that the asteroid will pass safely, global space agencies are actively monitoring its trajectory.

Key Points:

Detected on December, 2024.
Size Estimate: Between 40m and 90m in diameter.
Impact Probability: Currently estimated at 1.3%.
Potential Damage: Comparable to the energy of a nuclear explosion, significant if it impacts a populated area.
Current Torino Scale Rating: Level 3 out of 10, indicating a close encounter that warrants further monitoring.
In 2004, asteroid Apophis was initially assessed to have a 2.7% chance of impacting Earth in 2029. However, subsequent observations ruled out the possibility of collision.

UN-Endorsed Asteroid Reaction Groups:

International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) – Led by NASA, responsible for tracking and assessing asteroid threats.
Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) – Chaired by the European Space Agency (ESA), responsible for coordinating international response measures.

Possible Mitigation Strategies:

If 2024 YR4 maintains a risk above 1%, SMPAG may recommend intervention strategies, including:
Kinetic Impactor Mission: Similar to NASA’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) Mission (2022), which successfully altered an asteroid’s trajectory by colliding a spacecraft into it.
Continuous Observation: Ground and space telescopes will keep tracking YR4’s movement to refine calculations and assess potential risks.

Torino Impact Hazard Scale:

A tool for categorizing potential Earth impact events by near-Earth objects (NEOs) like asteroids and comets.
Established by the International Astronomical Union (IAU) in 1999 to aid public communication regarding asteroid impact hazards.
Scale Range: Integer values from 0 to 10, each with associated colour coding.
- 0: No risk; the likelihood of a collision is zero or negligible.
- 1: Normal; a routine discovery with a very low chance of collision.
- 2-4: Meriting attention; a close encounter with a possible threat that warrants monitoring.
- 5-7: Threatening; a significant threat of collision requiring action.
- 8-10: Certain collisions; a collision is certain, with varying levels of destruction based on the object’s size.

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission:

To test a method of asteroid deflection by altering an asteroid’s motion through kinetic impact.
Target: Dimorphos, a moonlet of the asteroid Didymos.
Method: A spacecraft was intentionally crashed into Dimorphos to change its orbit.
The impact successfully altered Dimorphos’ orbit around Didymos by 32 minutes, demonstrating the feasibility of kinetic impact as a planetary defense strategy.