MONSOON FORECAST

MONSOON FORECAST

Subject : Geography

Context: Skymet Weather, a private weather forecast company, said that the monsoon in India was likely to be 103% of the long period average (LPA) this year.

Concept :

• The LPA refers to the average all-India monsoon rainfall of 88 cm, which is a 50-year mean.
• The agency classified the forecast as “healthy normal”.
• The monsoon in 2019 and 2020 was only the third time in a century of back-to-back years of above normal rainfall (rainfall that is 5% above normal, or 105%) during the season in India. This year’s forecast by Skymet falls a little short of the “above normal” mark.

View on El Nino

• The odds of an El Nino, characterised by a heating of the equatorial central Pacific over half a degree, are low this year.
• An El Nino is historically associated, in many years, with a weakening of the monsoon over India.
• The monsoon is also expected to be fairly well-distributed, with even September (the month in which the season starts to recede) expected to post 10% more rainfall than normal.
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which provides the official forecasts, is expected to announce its forecast later this month.
• Along with the El Nino, another ocean variable, the Indian Ocean Dipole, characterized by a temperature gradient in the western and eastern Indian Ocean, is expected to be slightly on the negative. A positive dipole usually aids the monsoon.