Monsoon Forecast

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) updated the forecast for 2022 southwest monsoon to 103 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), from 99 per cent of LPA predicted in April as La Niña conditions are expected to prevail during the entire stretch of the four-month monsoon season.
La Niña is considered positive for Indian monsoon.
Monsoon in core rain-fed areas that are home to bulk of Kharif pulses and oilseeds, is likely to be 106% of LPA.
The LPA for the seasonal rainfall for the country as whole from 1971 to 2010 is 87 centimeter (cm).
Monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be well distributed spatially, with most parts of the country expected to receive ‘normal’ to ‘above normal’ rainfall, except some parts of East-Central, East, and Northeast India and extreme Southwest Peninsular India, where it is likely to be ‘below normal’.
The impact of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole on monsoon as predicted in the second-stage forecast, might act as a barrier which explains an overall forecast of rains being ‘above normal’.
This could have a positive impact on the retail inflation rate that has galloped to a 95-month high in April at 7.8 percent, and spur economic growth.