Potential fallout of Israel’s killing of senior Hamas, Hezbollah leaders

Potential fallout of Israel’s killing of senior Hamas, Hezbollah leaders

Subject: IR

Sec: Places in news

Context:

Ismail Haniyeh, head of the political bureau of Hamas and the Qatar-based public face of the group, was killed in Tehran where he was attending the inauguration of the new reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian.

More on News:

• Targeted killings are seen as a huge victory for Israel, which had vowed revenge for the October 7 attacks, a catastrophic failure of its intelligence, operations, and response mechanisms.
• Its Swords of Iron military offensive in Gaza had the twin objectives of destroying Hamas and freeing the hostages.
• By killing Haniyeh and Deif, Israel can claim to have substantially achieved the target of neutralising Hamas.

A message for Iran

• By targeting the leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas — both groups are part of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ sponsored by Iran — Israel has redrawn the red lines of the conflict in West Asia.. Tehran retaliated with a massive aerial attack against Israel that could, however, do only limited damage.
• Israel then conducted an air strike against Iran — again, with no major casualties.
• Israel took the message — Haniyeh was killed while he was inside a building in Tehran, but no Iranian military personnel were harmed in the highly targeted hit.
• To expose the vulnerabilities of Iran’s intelligence and security establishment in much the same way as the Hamas attack had exposed and embarrassed the Israelis.
• Iran’s security umbrella cannot protect the leaders of Hamas. 

There are three scenarios on the possible Iranian response.

1. Iran could consider picking targets on Israeli soil and carry out a repeat of the aerial attacks of April.
2. It could coordinate with its partners in the ‘Axis of Resistance’ — the three Hs, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis — to conduct coordinated attacks on Israeli targets.
3. It might target Israeli officials in third countries, perhaps after waiting for some time.

 Axis of resistance:

• The term “Axis of Resistance” typically refers to a geopolitical and strategic alliance among certain countries and groups in the Middle East that share common goals and interests.
• The axis often opposes what its members perceive as external interference, particularly from Western powers, and advocates for self-determination, sovereignty, and resistance against perceived occupation.
• The alliance is characterised by a shared opposition to certain foreign policies, especially those of the United States and its allies in the region.
• The key components of the Axis of Resistance include countries like Iran, Syria, and groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.

• Group members
  • Hezbollah 
  • Hamas
  • Palestinian Islamic Jihad
  • Houthis