Sutra Sero survey model

Sutra Sero survey model

Subject: Science and Technology

Context: If a fully immune-escape variant of SARS-CoV2 doesn’t surface, the third Covid-19 wave will only be a ripple when compared to the second wave that killed more than 2.5 lakh in a short span of time, according to a mathematician

Concept:

Sutra model

• Agrawal, together with MathukumalliVidyasagar of IIT-Hyderabad, and MadhuriKanitkar, Deputy Chief of Integrated Defence Staff, designed Sutra, the model that guided the government in taking several pandemic responses in the past.
• The serological survey was meant to detect whether the person being tested had developed antibodies against the coronavirus.
• Since it is not possible to test everyone, detecting antibodies in random sets of people is an indirect way of estimating the extent of disease spread in a community.
• The antibodies are proteins produced by the immune system to fight external organisms like viruses that try to enter the body.
• These are produced only after the infection has happened, and are specific to the attacking virus or bacterium.
• The presence of antibodies, therefore, is an indication that an infection by that particular virus or bacterium has already occurred.
• Subsequent attempts to infect the body can be thwarted by these antibodies.

Findings,

• This simulation model to assess the virus behaviour found fully immune-escape variant of SARS-CoV2 doesn’t surface, the third Covid-19 wave will only be a ripple when compared to the second wave.
• The key thing here is the assumption that 20 per cent of those infected by the Delta variant in the second wave becomes susceptible again after three months.
• First sero survey Agrawal was candid to admit that the Sutra model failed to pick up the extent of the second wave, calculated the second wave would not be very big and, at best, it would be similar to the first one.
• The scientists assuming that 50 per cent of the fully vaccinated people are still susceptible and 20 per cent of those infected by Delta variant (primarily responsible for the second wave) vulnerable again. However, this situation can change significantly if there is a variant that is fully immune-escape.