2022 likely to be the fifth or sixth warmest year on record: World Meteorological Organization

Subject: Environment

Context-

Global mean temperatures for 2022 are currently estimated to be about 1.15 degree Celsius higher than pre-industrial times, a new assessment by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said.

More on the news-

The widely acknowledged danger mark for temperature rise is considered to be 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial times, which is the average for the period 1850-1900.
The assessment is based on temperature data from January to September this year.
Data from the remaining three months might make the annual mean for 2022 slightly different from the 1.15 degree Celsius number, but the WMO said the year was still likely to end up being the fifth or sixth warmest year on record (since 1850).

Warmest year on record-

The warmest year on record so far has been 2016, when the global mean temperatures were measured to be about 1.28 degree Celsius higher than pre-industrial times.
This number for 2016 was earlier known to be 1.1 degree Celsius, but recently the WMO revised it upwards after taking into account the measurements of one more international dataset.
The estimate for 2022 is part of the provisional State of Global Climate Report that the WMOpublishes every year.

Prediction by the WM0-

In May this year, the WMO said there was a 50 per cent chance that the global temperatures would temporarily touch the 1.5 degree Celsius mark within the next five years (by 2026).
It also said it was almost certain (93 per cent likelihood) that one of these five years (till 2026) would end up being warmer than 2016, thus setting a new record.
The chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius has risen steadily since 2015 when it was close to zero.
For the years between 2017 and 2021, there was a 10 per cent chance of exceedance.
That probability has increased to nearly 50 per cent for the 2022-2026 period.

Dire consequences of rising temperatures-

The warming in 2022 so far has happened despite the presence of a prolonged La Nina (a cooling of sea-surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean) which tends to temporarily cool down the earth a bit.
It also pointed out that the concentrations of three main greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and Nitrous oxide (NO2), were all at record highs in 2021.
The emissions of methane, which is 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide in causing global warming have increased at the fastest pace ever.
Incidentally, just last year, at the climate change conference in Glasgow, countries had pledged to cut global methane emissions by at least 30 per cent by the year
The extent of the Arctic ice sheet had dropped to a record low in February this year, at nearly one million square km below the long-term mean.
Sea levels had risen about 10mm in just the last two years.

About the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is an intergovernmental organization with a membership of 193 Member States and Territories.
It originated from the International Meteorological Organization (IMO), the roots of which were planted at the 1873 Vienna International Meteorological Congress.
It is a specialized agency of the UN and is headquartered in Geneva.
It is responsible for promoting international cooperation in atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology and geophysics.
It facilitates the ‘free and unrestricted exchange of data, information, and research between the respective meteorological and hydrological institutions of its members
The state of Global Climate Report is published by the WMO annually.
WMO in its State of Global Climate Report 2021, have said that the 4 key climate change indicators – greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise, ocean heat and ocean acidification – have set new records in 2021.