China’s population drops for first time in 60 years
- January 18, 2023
- Posted by: OptimizeIAS Team
- Category: Uncategorized
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China’s population drops for first time in 60 years
Subject :Geography
Section : Human Geography
Concept :
- China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported a drop of roughly 850,000 people for a population of 1.41175 billion in 2022, the first dip since 1961.
Chinese Policies related to declining population
- One-Child Policy :
- One cause behind the fall in numbers in China is the one-child policy imposed between 1980 and 2015.
- This policy limited the number of children couples could have to one.
- But as the proportion of those in the working-age population began reducing, the policy became a matter of concern.
- Hence, from 2016, all married couples were allowed to have a second child. Again, in 2021, China allowed couples to have three children.
- High cost of living :
- High education costs and costs of living have put many people off having children, even as a number of incentives have been announced by the government.
- Zero-Covid policies :
- China’s stringent zero-Covid policies that were in place for three years have caused further damage to the country’s demographic outlook.
Where does India stand?
- Population :
- India has not conducted an official headcount Census after 2011.
- But going by the United Nations’ projections, its population stood at 1,417.2 million in 2022 (more than China’s) and is expected to reach 1,428.6 million in 2023.
- Mortality and fertility :
- The crude death rate (CDR) — the number of persons dying per year per 1,000 population – has fell down to 7.3-7.4 for India in 2020.
- The total fertility rate (TFR) — the number of babies an average woman bears over her lifetime — came down to 2 during 2019-21.
- A TFR of 2.1 is considered as replacement-level fertility.
- Eg., a woman having two children replaces herself and her partner with two new lives.
- Since all infants may not survive, the replacement TFR is taken at slightly above two.
Reason for increasing populations amidst declining TFR
- The TFR is the average number of births by women aged 15-49 based on surveys for a particular period/year.
- Populations can keep growing even with TFRs falling. De-growth requires TFRs to remain below replacement levels for extended periods.
- Hence, the effects of declining TFRs may reflect only after a couple of generations.
- China’s TFR dipped below replacement first in 1991 and its population peaked in 2021 (2022 saw the decline in China’s population).
- It took over 30 years for below-replacement fertility rates to translate into negative population growth.