Impact of Climate Change on India’s Wheat Production

Sub : Geo

Sec: Eco Geo

Why in News

India recorded its warmest February in 124 years, with extreme heat warnings issued for March 2025.Wheat, India’s second-most consumed crop after rice, faces significant threats due to climate change-induced heat stress.

Impact of Climate Change on Wheat:

A 2022 study in the International Journal of Molecular Sciences noted that global warming affects wheat by:
- Reducing grain production and quality.
- Disrupting physiological and biochemical processes such as photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrient absorption.
A 2024 study by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, predicts the Indian Ocean will enter a “near-permanent heatwave state” due to global warming.
The frequency of marine heat waves is expected to rise from 20 days per year to 220-250 days per year.
Effects of Heat Waves on Wheat:
- Accelerates flowering and ripening, shortening the grain-filling period.
- Reduces starch accumulation, leading to lighter grains and lower wheat yield.
- Increases protein content but lowers starch, affecting milling quality.

Wheat:

Wheat is a Rabi crop sown between September and December, and harvested between February and May.
India cultivates wheat over approximately 29.8 million hectares.
Indian Wheat Type: Predominantly soft to medium-hard with medium protein content, similar to U.S. hard white wheat.
Durum Wheat: Known as pasta or macaroni wheat, is among the highest quality varieties in India.

Adaptability and Climatic Conditions:

Wide Adaptability: Grows in tropical, sub-tropical, temperate zones, and cold regions up to 60°N latitude.
Climate Tolerance: Withstands severe cold and snow, resuming growth in warm spring weather.
Altitude Range: Can be cultivated from sea level up to 3,300 meters.
Ideal Climate: Best grown in regions with cool, moist conditions during growth, followed by warm, dry weather for ripening.
Germination Temperature: Optimal germination occurs at 20-25°C, though seeds can germinate between 5-35°C.
Ripening Temperature: Ideal average temperature for ripening is around 14-15°C.
Climate Sensitivity: Rain after sowing hinders germination, and high/low temperatures during flowering harm the crop.
According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), wheat growth is categorized into four key stages:
- Germination to Emergence: Seedling development until the first leaf emerges.
- Growth Stage 1: Emergence to double ridge, where primordial leaves and spikelets begin forming.
- Growth Stage 2: Double ridge to anthesis, marking the transition to the reproductive stage. This is the most vulnerable to heat stress.
- Growth Stage 3: Grain-filling period from anthesis to maturity, critical for yield formation.

Indian and Global Wheat Production

Indian Top Producers: Uttar Pradesh > Madhya Pradesh > Punjab > Haryana > Rajasthan.
Top Producers: China, the EU, and India produce over 41% of the world’s wheat.
Leading Exporters: Russia, the United States, Canada, France, and Ukraine are the top five wheat exporters.
Despite large production, China and India are net importers with minimal global wheat exports.
Ukraine and Russia: Together, they contribute 14% of global wheat production, ranking 4th and 7th respectively