As US position on Ukraine-NATO shifts, a recall — and why it matters

Sub: IR

Sec: Int grouping

Context:

The U.S. has significantly shifted its stance on Ukraine’s potential NATO membership.
In 2008, NATO’s Bucharest Summit declared that Ukraine and Georgia would eventually become NATO members.
However, recently U.S. Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth stated that NATO membership for Ukraine is unlikely. Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump also rejected the idea of Ukraine joining NATO, calling it “impractical.”

Historical Context of NATO Expansion:

In 1990, U.S. Secretary of State James Baker assured Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not expand eastward. Despite this assurance, NATO’s expansion proceeded throughout the 1990s and 2000s.
Since the 1990s, NATO has steadily expanded eastward, incorporating former Warsaw Pact countries and former Soviet republics.
This includes countries such as Czechia, Hungary, Poland (1999), Bulgaria, Slovakia, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia (2004), Albania, Croatia (2009), Montenegro, and North Macedonia (2017, 2020).
U.S. Justification for Expansion: U.S. President Bill Clinton in 1999 presented NATO expansion as a project for promoting democracy and stability across Europe, emphasizing cooperation and collective defence.

Russia’s Reaction and Security Concerns:

NATO’s founding principle of collective defence means that an attack on one NATO member is treated as an attack on all, compelling the alliance to defend the attacked member. This presents a strategic challenge for Russia, which views NATO’s expansion as encroachment into its sphere of influence.
As NATO moved closer to Russia’s borders, the perception of the alliance as a tool of Western hegemony
Russia considers Ukraine’s potential membership in NATO as a “red line” and has warned that this would lead to direct conflict.
In response to NATO’s continued enlargement and the potential inclusion of Ukraine, Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, further escalating tensions. The annexation was seen as a reaction to NATO’s growing proximity.

Shifting U.S. Policy on NATO and Ukraine:

George W. Bush was the first U.S. president to publicly advocate for Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO, but France and Germany opposed this idea.
A compromise at the 2008 Bucharest Summit resulted in a vague promise without a clear timeline for Ukraine’s membership, leaving the situation unresolved.
Donald Trump has been a vocal critic of NATO’s role in Europe, advocating for a restructured or reduced U.S. involvement.
This has led to a shift in U.S. policy toward Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, signalling a potential break in the traditional American approach to NATO enlargement.
The evolving stance of the U.S could disrupt NATO’s unity and shape the future trajectory of Ukraine’s aspirations.

About NATO:

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a military and political alliance of countries in Europe and North America.
NATO was established on April 4, 1949, with the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty (Washington Treaty).
Members: NATO originally included 12 founding members: the United States, Canada, and 10 Western European countries.
Today, NATO has 32 member countries. Sweden became the latest member of NATO in March 2024.
Headquarters: Brussels, Belgium.
NATO’s central principle is collective defence, outlined in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.