Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region

Subject: Report

Context:

Ministry of Earth Sciences has released the report First Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region. 

Concept:

Findings:

• West Bengal is one of the most climatically vulnerable states of India with a history of a high number of severe cyclones in the Bay of Bengal coast, severe thunderstorms, a high sea-level rise and projected flood risk.
• The flood risk has increased over the east coast; West Bengal, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Konkan region, as well as a majority of urban areas such as Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai.
• As against the global average warming of 0.7 degrees Celsius, sea surface temperature of the tropical Indian Ocean rose by on an average of 1°C between 1951 and 2015. Such an increase in ocean temperature has a direct bearing on the intensity of thunderstorms and cyclones in the zone.
• In a worst-case scenario, average surface air temperatures over India could rise by up to 4.4°Cby the end of the century as compared to the period between 1976 and 2005.
• The sea level has been rising at a rate of five centimetres per decade off the Bengal coast, the highest in the country. The rise is about three centimetres per decade close to Mumbai.
• By 2100, the frequency of warm days and warm nights might also increase by 55% and 70% respectively, as compared to the period 1976-2005 under the RCP 8.5 scenario.
• The incidences of heat waves over the country could also increase by three to four times. Their duration of occurrence might also increase which was already witnessed by the country in 2019.