Cyclone brewing? Conditions favourable, wait and watch for next 48 hours, say experts

Subject: Geography

Context-

A cyclonic circulation has formed over the southern Andaman Sea and its neighbourhood.
This cyclonic circulation, swirling winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, may induce a low-pressure area in the southeast and east central Bay of Bengal.
After formation, the storm system will likely move north-westward into west central and neighbouring southwest Bay of Bengal.
IMD predicted that the low-pressure area would become slightly more intense in the subsequent two days.
It did not say anything about further intensification into depression or a cyclone. The conditions for cyclogenesis do exist in the region.

Impact of LaNiña-

There is a La Niña in the Pacific.
La Niña conditions are favourable for cyclone formation and intensification in the Bay of Bengal, as compared to El Niño years.
Winds have changed to a northeast pattern and the rainfall trends over the Arabian Sea and the northern Bay of Bengal for October will favour cyclogenesis
The forecast does seem to indicate the tightening and strengthening of the cyclonic system.

Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones-

Rapid intensification is when a tropical cyclone’s maximum sustained wind speeds increase by more than 55 kilometres per hour (kmph) in 24 hours.
It generally happens due to warm ocean waters and conducive wind conditions over the ocean area where the cyclone is forming.
Many tropical cyclones in recent years have undergone rapid intensification, such as Super Cyclone Amphan which hit West Bengal and Bangladesh in May 2020.
Amphan also grew to an incredible size and gained considerable strength, becoming the strongest cyclone in the Bay of Bengalsince the Odisha super cyclone in 1999.
It was also the costliest cyclone in the Indian Ocean region, with a loss and damage bill of around $13 billion.
Extremely severe cyclone Tauktae also experienced rapid intensification by gaining around 83 kmph wind speed in 24 hours in May 2021.
It was one of the strongest cyclones to impact the west coast of India.

Relation between Monsoon and Tropical cyclones-

As of now, the Bay of Bengal is warm (29°C and above) and humid.
The monsoon wind shear is weak.
It means that the basin can support the formation of a depression or a cyclone.
However, the sea surface temperatures are not exceptionally warm to support the rapid intensification of cyclones.
The fact that the monsoon winds have not yet withdrawn from India may also influence the formation and intensification of the cyclone.
The monsoon has retreated from the northwest and many parts of central India and some parts of east and northeast India.
The withdrawal is already late by two days.
The withdrawing monsoon can interact with the Bay of Bengal conditions and cyclogenesis.