Cyclone brewing? Conditions favourable, wait and watch for next 48 hours, say experts
- October 19, 2022
- Posted by: OptimizeIAS Team
- Category: DPN Topics
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Cyclone brewing? Conditions favourable, wait and watch for next 48 hours, say experts
Subject: Geography
Context-
- A cyclonic circulation has formed over the southern Andaman Sea and its neighbourhood.
- This cyclonic circulation, swirling winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, may induce a low-pressure area in the southeast and east central Bay of Bengal.
- After formation, the storm system will likely move north-westward into west central and neighbouring southwest Bay of Bengal.
- IMD predicted that the low-pressure area would become slightly more intense in the subsequent two days.
- It did not say anything about further intensification into depression or a cyclone. The conditions for cyclogenesis do exist in the region.
Impact of LaNiña-
- There is a La Niña in the Pacific.
- La Niña conditions are favourable for cyclone formation and intensification in the Bay of Bengal, as compared to El Niño years.
- Winds have changed to a northeast pattern and the rainfall trends over the Arabian Sea and the northern Bay of Bengal for October will favour cyclogenesis
- The forecast does seem to indicate the tightening and strengthening of the cyclonic system.
Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones-
- Rapid intensification is when a tropical cyclone’s maximum sustained wind speeds increase by more than 55 kilometres per hour (kmph) in 24 hours.
- It generally happens due to warm ocean waters and conducive wind conditions over the ocean area where the cyclone is forming.
- Many tropical cyclones in recent years have undergone rapid intensification, such as Super Cyclone Amphan which hit West Bengal and Bangladesh in May 2020.
- Amphan also grew to an incredible size and gained considerable strength, becoming the strongest cyclone in the Bay of Bengalsince the Odisha super cyclone in 1999.
- It was also the costliest cyclone in the Indian Ocean region, with a loss and damage bill of around $13 billion.
- Extremely severe cyclone Tauktae also experienced rapid intensification by gaining around 83 kmph wind speed in 24 hours in May 2021.
- It was one of the strongest cyclones to impact the west coast of India.
Relation between Monsoon and Tropical cyclones-
- As of now, the Bay of Bengal is warm (29°C and above) and humid.
- The monsoon wind shear is weak.
- It means that the basin can support the formation of a depression or a cyclone.
- However, the sea surface temperatures are not exceptionally warm to support the rapid intensification of cyclones.
- The fact that the monsoon winds have not yet withdrawn from India may also influence the formation and intensification of the cyclone.
- The monsoon has retreated from the northwest and many parts of central India and some parts of east and northeast India.
- The withdrawal is already late by two days.
- The withdrawing monsoon can interact with the Bay of Bengal conditions and cyclogenesis.