Emissions Gap Report: Only 14% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C even in most optimistic scenarios
- November 22, 2023
- Posted by: OptimizeIAS Team
- Category: DPN Topics
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Emissions Gap Report: Only 14% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C even in most optimistic scenarios
Subject :Environment
Section: International Organisation
Context:
- UNEP has published the 14th Emission Gap Report 2023.
Findings of the report:
- There is only a 14 per cent chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels, considering the most optimistic climate action projects.
- Even if the existing nationally determined contributions (NDC), both conditional and unconditional, are delivered by 2030, the world will warm by 2.5°C, breaching the 2°C target set by the Paris Agreement.
- Warming under the current policy scenarios will reach 3°C.
- The implementation gap — the difference between the commitments made by countries in their NDCs and the actual measures and policies implemented to achieve those commitments — stands at five gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent.
- Only nine countries have updated their nationally determined contributions (NDC) or made new commitments since the 27th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2022.
- In 2023,86 days have experienced warming higher than 1.5°C.
- The global emissions peaked at 57.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2022.
- Of the global GHG emissions, approximately two-thirds come from fossil fuel-based CO2 emissions.
Contributions to emissions are unequal:
- A minority of nations, led by the United States, the European Union and China, account for a disproportionate share of historical emissions and warming.
- The G20 collectively are responsible for three-quarters of the current burden of warming.
- The global top 10 per cent income bracket generates a staggering 45-49 per cent of total emissions, while the bottom 50 per cent contributes a mere 7-13 per cent.
- Policy measures:
- The United States passed the Inflation Reduction Act, and it will help the US reach two-thirds of its 2030 NDC goals.
- The European Union’s Fit for 55 and REPowerEU initiatives could surpass their 2030 targets.
- But challenges arise from increased investments in fossil gas infrastructure and a temporary shift from gas to coal.
Low confidence in Net Zero targets:
- 97 parties from 101 countries, representing 82 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, had adopted Net Zero pledges.
- While 37 per cent of global emissions are covered by Net Zero targets for 2050 or earlier, 44 per cent have commitments beyond2050.
- The progress indicators for Net Zero Targets such as legal status, implementation plans, and emission reduction pace remain deeply insufficient, signaling a low confidence in the Net Zero targets.
- Low and Lower-middle-income countries are facing challenges like high debt, low clean energy investments, and vulnerability to volatile fossil fuel markets.
Exploring carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies:
- CDR is only the direct removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and its durable storage in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs or in products.
- CDR encompasses a wide array of approaches, including direct air capture (DAC) coupled to durable storage, soil carbon sequestration, biomass carbon removal and storage, enhanced mineralization, ocean-based CDR, and afforestation/reforestation.
Source: Down To Earth