Global 2024 staple food supplies to be strained by dry weather, export curbs

Subject : Geography

Section: Climatology

Context:

High food prices in recent years have prompted farmers worldwide to plant more cereals and oilseeds, but consumers are set to face tighter supplies well into 2024, amid adverse El Nino weather, export restrictions and higher biofuel mandates.

Price Trends:

Wheat, corn, and soybean prices are predicted to decline in 2023 after several years of growth.
Factors include eased Black Sea bottlenecks and concerns about a potential global recession.
El Nino forecasts and unexpected large purchases by China contribute to ongoing concerns.

El Nino Impact on Food Production:

El Nino’s dryness affects rice, wheat, and palm oil supplies.
Reduced reservoir levels and dry planting conditions may decrease Asian rice production in 2024.
India’s Wheat Situation:
- Insufficient moisture threatens India’s next wheat crop, potentially leading to its first wheat imports in six years.
- India has already imposed restrictions due to decreased rice production.
Australian Crop Challenges:
- Dry soil conditions in Australia might impact upcoming wheat planting due to previous intense heat affecting crop yields.
South American Crop Outlook:
- Argentina expects favourable conditions for soybeans, corn, and wheat due to abundant rainfall.
- Brazil anticipates near-record farm output but faces uncertainties in soybean and corn production due to recent dry weather.
Global Palm Oil Production:
- El Nino is expected to decrease global palm oil production, impacting cooking oil prices that dropped significantly in 2023.

Source: Reuters