Global warming now more likely to breach 1.5°C threshold by 2027

Global warming now more likely to breach 1.5°C threshold by 2027

Subject : Environment

Section: Climate change

Context: Partially responsible for boosting the chance of hitting 1.5°C is an El Nino weather pattern expected to develop in the coming months.

More on the News:

• For the first time ever, global temperatures are now more likely than not to breach 1.5°C (2.7°F) of warming within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organization said on May 17.
• But that did not necessarily mean the world would cross the long-term warming threshold of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
• Partially responsible for boosting the chance of hitting 1.5°C is an El Nino weather pattern expected to develop in the coming months. During this natural phenomenon, warmer waters in the tropical Pacific heat the atmosphere above, spiking global temperatures.
• The El Nino “will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory”, said WMO Secretary-General
• Still, the likelihood of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has increased over time. Between 2017 and 2021, for example, scientists estimated just a 10% chance of hitting 1.5C.
• Unlike the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s climate projections which are based on future greenhouse gas emissions, the WMO update provides more of a prediction-based long-range weather forecast.
• The WMO also found a 98% chance that one of the next five years will be the hottest on record, surpassing 2016 which saw global temperature impacted by about 1.3°C (2.3°F) of warming.
• The hottest eight years ever recorded were all between 2015 and 2022, with 2016 the warmest — but temperatures are forecast to increase further as climate change accelerates.

World Meteorological Organisation (WMO):

• The WMO is an intergovernmental organizationwith a membership of 192 Member States and Territories.
• India is a member of
• It originated from theInternational Meteorological Organization (IMO), which was established after the 1873 Vienna International Meteorological Congress.
• Established by the ratification of the WMO Convention on 23rd March 1950, WMObecame the specialized agency of the United Nations for meteorology (weather and climate), operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences.’
• WMO also encourages research and training in meteorology and hydrologyand their related applications and contributes towards reducing the impact of weather- and climate-related hazards.
• Predictions concerning locust swarms and the transport of pollutants(nuclear and toxic substances, volcanic ash) are also provided by WMO Members.
• WMO is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland.
• Reports:
  • Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.
  • Status of the World Climate.

More about Paris agreement: https://optimizeias.com/indias-updated-climate-pledge-to-paris-agreement/