In 1950-2015, the Hindu population dipped from 85% to 78%, and Muslims rose to 14% from 10% — PM-EAC paper

Subject: Geography

Sec: Human geo

Context:

A working paper of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) was released on the share of religious minorities in 167 countries, including India.

Key Findings:

The share of the Hindu population in India decreased by 7.82% from 1950 to 2015, declining from 84.68% to 78.06%.
Muslim population in India rose significantly by 43.15%, increasing from 9.84% in 1950 to 14.09% in 2015.
Other religious minorities in India except for Parsis and Jains saw an increase in their population share up to 6.58 percent.
Christians, Sikhs, and Buddhists all experienced growth, whereas Jains (from 0.45 to 0.36 per cent) and Parsis saw a decline, with Parsis witnessing a substantial 85% reduction.
Globally, the majority religious group’s share decreased in 123 out of 167 countries studied, reflecting a trend towards greater religious heterogeneity.

Regional Comparison:

In contrast to India, neighbouring countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Afghanistan have seen an increase in the share of their majority religious groups and an alarming decline in minority populations.
The Indian subcontinent (excluding Maldives where a slight decrease of 1.47 per cent occurred) generally showed growth in the Muslim-majority populations.
Among the five non-Muslim majority countries, Myanmar, India and Nepal saw a decline in the share of the majority religious denomination while Sri Lanka and Bhutan saw their share increase.

Global Perspective:

Globally, the share of the majority population has decreased in 123 countries while it went up in 44 countries only.
- In 1950, Animism had a majority status in 24 countries (almost all of them in Africa). Animism did not just lose its share in the overall population but it is no longer a majority population in any of these 24 countries by 2015.
The global decline in majority religious groups is marked, particularly among Christian-majority countries where 77 out of 94 reported decreases.
Conversely, Muslim-majority countries mostly saw increases, with 25 out of 38 noting growth.
Of the eight member countries of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and Myanmar, the share of the majority religious denomination has decreased in four while it increased in five.
The Indian subcontinent accounts for one-fifth of the global population.

What are the Implications?

The data suggests that India offers a relatively conducive environment for the diversity and growth of minority religions and is the outcome of “progressive policies and inclusive institutions”, contrary to the decrease in minority populations in many neighbouring countries.
The paper highlights the role of demographic changes as a part of structural transformations in societies, indicating that these shifts might reflect broader societal trends rather than immediate political conditions alone.

Relevance of the findings:

The findings are relevant in the context of recent political developments such as India’s Citizenship Amendment Act, which aims to provide refuge to persecuted minorities from specific neighbouring countries.
The trends underscore the comparative stability and growth of minority populations in India, a notable contrast to patterns observed in some other South Asian countries.