India ageing, elderly to make up 20% of population by 2050: UNFPA report

Subject: Geography

Section: Human Geography

Context:

The United Nations Report has said that by 2046 it is likely that elderly population will have surpassed the population of children (aged 0 to 15 years) in the country.

Details of the report:

Report title: India Ageing Report 2023
Published by: United Nations Population Fund, India (UNFPA)
The report used data from the 2011 Census, the 2017-18 Longitudinal Ageing Survey in India (LASI) conducted by the Health Ministry, population projections of the Government of India and the World Population Projection 2022 report, among other sources.
Decadal growth rate of the elderly population of India is 41%.
The percentage of elderly population in the country is projected to double to over 20% of total population by 2050.

Key findings of the report:

Over 40% poorest:

More than 40% of the elderly in India are in the poorest wealth quintile, with about 18.7% of them living without an income. This may affect their quality of life and healthcare utilization.
The population of people aged 80+ years will grow at a rate of around 279% between 2022 and 2050 with a “predominance of widowed and highly dependent very old women” – a finding in line with the pattern across several nations.
Women had higher life expectancy at the age of 60 and at the 80 compared to men — with variations across States and Union Territories.

Higher life expectancy:

Life expectancy of women at 60 years is greater than 20 years in States such as Rajasthan, Haryana, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, and the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir, raising concerns about their social and economic well-being.
The sex ratio (females per 1,000 males) among the elderly has been climbing steadily since 1991, with the ratio in the general population stagnating. Between 2011 and 2021, the ratio increased in India as a whole and across all regions, barring the Union Territories and western India.
In the northeast and the east, while the sex ratio of the elderly increased, it remained below 1,000 in both years.
In central India the sex ratio went from 973 in 2011 to 1,053 in 2021.

Life expectancy at 60 years differentiated by gender across states

Inherently gendered:

Poverty is inherently gendered in old age when older women are more likely to be widowed, living alone, with no income and with fewer assets of their own, and fully dependent on family for support.
Major challenges include the feminisation and ruralisation of this older population.
Most States in the southern region and select northern States such as Himachal Pradesh and Punjab reported a higher share of the elderly population than the national average in 2021, a gap that is expected to widen by 2036.

Projected share of the elderly population:

While States reporting higher fertility rates and lagging in demographic transition, including Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, expect to see an increase in the share of the elderly population between 2021 and 2036, the level will remain lower than the Indian average.
Compared with southern and western India, central and northeastern regions have the younger group of States as indicated by the aging index.

Old-age dependency ratio across states:

In the southern region, the old-age dependency ratio (elderly people per 100 people between 15 and 59 years) was higher than the national average at around 20 as is true of western India at 17. Overall, Union Territories (13) and the north-eastern region (13) reflected lower old age dependency ratios.

Government aid to elderly populations:

While most said they received state aid, this was not enough; that there were no accessible public healthcare facilities; and that nobody except NGOs or CBOs (community-based organisations) helped them.