Is Syria’s Assad Regime in Danger?

Is Syria’s Assad Regime in Danger?

Sub: IR

Sec: Places in news

Why in News

The Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria is facing renewed threats as Islamist militants launched a surprise offensive in northwest Syria. This has resulted in significant territorial losses for the Assad regime, potentially reigniting the civil war that had been in a frozen state since 2016.

Background:

The Syrian Civil War (2011–2016):

• The conflict began in 2011 amidst Arab Spring-inspired anti-government protests. Multiple factions, including jihadist groups and rebels, rose against the regime.
• By 2015, Assad’s government retained control only over Damascus and some coastal cities, while opposition groups like the Free Syrian Army, Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Qaeda affiliate), and the Islamic State (IS) controlled other regions.
• Russian Intervention (2015): Russia’s military involvement turned the tide in Assad’s favor.
• The Syrian army, supported by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, recaptured key territories, including Aleppo in 2016.
• Ceasefire (post-2016): The conflict entered a frozen stage, with the Assad regime holding most territories but peace remaining elusive.
• Recently, Islamist militants, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched attacks from Idlib, capturing Aleppo and moving into Hama. Their swift advances have doubled their territorial control, including areas held by Kurdish rebels.

The Assad Regime:

• The regime began in 1971 when Hafez al-Assad became President of Syria.
• Bashar al-Assad succeeded him in 2000.
• Objective: Maintain centralized control over Syria, suppress dissent, and retain power amidst civil unrest and external threats.
• Ruled by the Ba’ath Party advocating Arab nationalism.
• Stronghold: Damascus and coastal areas dominated by the Alawite minority.
• Backed by Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah during the civil war.
• Faced international condemnation for alleged use of chemical weapons.

Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF):

• Formed in 2015 as an alliance of Kurdish, Arab, and Assyrian militias.
• Objective: Fight ISIS, promote secular governance, and seek autonomy for Kurdish regions in northern Syria (Rojava).
• Led by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG).
• Controlled significant parts of northeastern Syria, including oil-rich areas.
• Backed by the U.S. in the fight against ISIS.
• Maintains a detente with the Assad regime to avoid direct conflict.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS):

• Emerged in 2017 from a merger of various Islamist rebel factions, including Jabhat Fateh al-Sham.
• Objective: Establish an Islamic state in Syria and overthrow the Assad regime.
• Operates primarily in Idlib province.
• Led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, a U.S.-designated terrorist.
• Initially affiliated with al-Qaeda but distanced itself in later years.
• Controls a de facto parallel state in Idlib, with its own governance structures.

Kurdish Rebels:

• Kurdish militias like the YPG emerged to protect Kurdish-majority areas after the Syrian civil war began in 2011.
• Objective: Achieve autonomy or independence for Kurdish regions (Rojava) within Syria.
• Fought both ISIS and Turkish-backed militias.
• Administered regions with a federal democratic model.
• Supported by the U.S. but opposed by Turkey due to links with the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party).
• Have a tacit understanding with the Assad regime to resist Turkish advances.

Jabhat al-Nusra (Al-Qaeda’s Syrian Branch):

• Founded in 2012 by Abu Mohammad al-Julani under the directive of al-Qaeda leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
• Objective: Overthrow the Assad regime and establish an Islamic state.
• Initially operated as al-Qaeda’s official branch in Syria.
• Controlled parts of Idlib and Aleppo during the civil war.
• Rebranded as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham in 2016 and later evolved into HTS.
• Played a prominent role in the early stages of the Syrian insurgency.