ISRO has a problem: many rockets, but too few satellites to launch

ISRO has a problem: many rockets, but too few satellites to launch

Subject: Science and tech

Sec: Space sector

Context:

Indian space programme used to follow a supply-driven model: ISRO would launch satellites and then look for customers for services provided by the satellites. This changed to a demand-driven model in 2019-2020, in which a satellite is built and launched only if there is already demand for it.

More about News:

• ISRO’s launch vehicle capability was three-times the demand. Strong demand was needed for launch vehicles from the domestic Indian market.

India currently has four launch vehicles:

• Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV)
• 3 stage Launch Vehicle configured with three Solid Propulsion Stages and liquid propulsion based Velocity Trimming Module (VTM) as a terminal stage.
• Cost per launch: ₹35 crore (US$4.2 million) (expected)
• Diameter: 2 m (6 ft 7 in)
• Height: 34 m (112 ft)
• Last flight: 10 February 2023, EOS-07
• Features
  • Low cost
  • Low turn-around time
  • Flexibility in accommodating multiple satellites
  • Launch on demand feasibility
  • Minimal launch infrastructure requirements
• Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV)
  • Manufacturer: ISRO
  • Rocket Function: Artificial satellite
• Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV)
  • Developed: India
  • To launch communication satellites in geo transfer orbit using cryogenic third stage.
  • Initially Russian GK supplied cryogenic stages were used.
• Launch Vehicle Mark-III (LVM-3)
• Cost per launch: ₹500 crore (US$60 million)
• First flight: 18 December 2014 (suborbital); 5 June 2017 (orbital)
• Function: Medium-lift launch vehicle
• Height: 43 m (142.5 ft)
• Last flight: 14 July 2023

India also relies on foreign launch vehicles

• Europe’s Ariane V
  • Manufacturer: European space agency
• SpaceX’s Falcon 9
  • Manufacturer: SpaceX

At present, the country operates a fleet of satellites with applications in

• Communications,
• Remote sensing,
• Positioning,
• Navigation and timing (PNT),
• Meteorology,
• Disaster management,
• Space-based internet,
• Scientific missions
• Experimental missions.

Launch vehicles for space missions:

• Chandrayaan 3
  • Start date: 14 July 2023
  • Location: Satish Dhawan Space Centre
  • Launch site:  Satish Dhawan Space Centre
  • Distance driven: 4 m (333 ft)
  • Launch mass: 3900 kg (8600 lb)
  • Manufacturer: ISRO
  • Orbital insertion: 5 August 2023
• Aditya L1
  • Launch date: 2 September 2023
  • Cost: 5 crores USD (2018)
  • Launch site: Satish Dhawan Space Centre
  • Manufacturers: ISRO, Indian Institute of Astrophysics (IIA), The Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics
  • COSPAR ID: 2023-132A
  • Mission duration: 2 years (planned); 10 months and 9 days (elapsed)

Where is the issue?

Demand-driven model:

The Indian space programme used to follow a supply-driven model: ISRO would build and launch satellites and then look for customers who needed the services provided by the satellites.

When the Indian government reformed the space sector in 2019-2020, it changed this to a demand-driven model. Here, a satellite needs to be built and launched only if there is already demand for it.

The customer of the services provided by the satellite needs to be educated about the need for the service. The customer will then create a demand for a service that will need a satellite to be launched. This will provide the demand.

Who will educate the customer, ISRO or the industry?

Without such educated customers, demand at the scale ISRO expects will not be created. The customers here are not only consumers of space-based internet.

Demand:

• Companies, government institutions, defence enterprises, and ordinary people including farmers, bankers,
• Human space flight
• Space tourism

Launch capability limitations

• India’s launch vehicles are also not powerful enough to undertake certain missions, like Chandrayaan 4. China used its Long March 5 launch vehicle to launch its Chang’e 4 and Chang’e 5 missions in a single launch.
• India’s LVM-3 has less than one-third of Long March 5’s capability (28% to be more precise) and will need two LVM-3 launches to launch all the components of Chandrayaan 4.
• ISRO will be upgrading the LVM-3 with a semi-cryogenic engine to boost its payload capacity to six tonnes to the geostationary transfer orbit (GTO).
• The organisation will also need a new launch vehicle — already dubbed the Next Generation Launch Vehicle (NGLV), a.k.a. Project Soorya — to carry 10 tonnes to GTO.

Launch vehicle economics:

• The heavier vehicles can full fill some national goals like lunar exploration and a space station while ISRO can use the smaller satellites for technology and capability
• Satellites have a defined mission life. As they get old, they will need to be replaced with newer This will also create a demand for launch vehicles.
• Mission operators have been improving their lifetimes with software and hardware This complicates estimates of the number and frequency of launch vehicles that will be needed.
• In a single launch, the PSLV can deliver multiple satellites in multiple orbits.
• Rocket stages are becoming reusable, which reduces the cost of building the rocket and increases profitability.
• ISRO has been building its Reusable Launch Vehicle and vertical landing technologies to make reusable landing stages. It is also making an effort to replace toxic fuels for rocket engines with green alternatives.

Private sector vs government

• Ecosystem that creates demand for various services, leading to a demand for data, culminating in a demand for launch vehicles.
• The Indian government wants the private sector to create demand among customers and to build and launch satellites. It wants them to look for services to offer customers in India and abroad. It also wants revenue by providing launch services of its own.
• Government wants to upskill workers and give them jobs.
• Private companies don’t want the government to be in the launch business. Instead, they want the government to be their customer and to provide rule of law and reliable regulations. This is because private players desire a reliable source of revenue, which the Indian government can be over a long period of time.
• Indian government will absorb the cost of the transition from supply-driven to demand-driven building of satellites and launch vehicles. But it isn’t yet educating its own Ministries and creating the demand for satellites and launch vehicles.