Jeddah: Hope for peace in Ukraine?

Jeddah: Hope for peace in Ukraine?

Subject: International Relations

Section: Places in news

Context:

Jeddah will host peace talks on the Russia-Ukraine war, with Ukraine, the U.S., European countries, India, and Brazil participating on August 5 and 6.

What is Russia-Ukraine War?

• The war began in February 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas
• The war has escalated since February 2022 when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, breaking the Minsk agreements and triggering international sanctions and condemnation.
• Caused a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine,
  • as Russia has cut off gas supplies, blocked food aid, and launched drone attacks on Kyiv and other cities .
• The war has sparked a global security threat,
  • as NATO and other allies have sent troops and weapons to support Ukraine.

Who has been invited to participate in the peace talks?

• The invited countries include Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, the U.S., some European countries (such as the United Kingdom and Poland), major developing countries (such as India and Brazil), and South Africa.
• Up to 30 countries have been invited for the talks, but Russia is notably excluded from the list of participants.
• The United Kingdom, the European Union, South Africa, and Poland have already confirmed their attendance for the talks.
• The U.S. National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, is also likely to attend the talks.

What is the purpose of these peace talks?

• To find a resolution to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which has been ongoing since February 2022.
• Ukraine seeks to garner international support for its 10-point peace plan, which was proposed last year during the G20 Summit.
• The talks are seen as a constructive way of promoting third-party mediation and involving non-aligned countries from the Global South in the peace process.
• The talks provide an opportunity to bring both the West and non-aligned countries to the table to address the conflict.

How likely are these peace talks to lead to an effective resolution?

• UN Secretary-General doubts peace talks now due to both sides’ belief in winning.
• Analysts mostly agree that effective peace talks in the near future are unlikely.
• However, Talks are considered constructive for promoting third-party mediation outside the West.

What are the key points of Ukraine’s peace plan?

• 10-point peace plan, promoted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, involves the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory.
• The plan aims to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity based on its 1991 borders after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
• It also calls for prosecuting war crimes committed by Russia during the course of the conflict.
• Ukraine asserts that peace negotiations cannot happen without the withdrawal of Russian troops and that it should define its own terms of peace.

How has Russia responded to Ukraine’s peace plan?

• Russia has rejected Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan and is unwilling to relinquish any of the captured territories.
• Russia insists that any negotiation should consider “new realities,” implying recognition of the territories it has annexed.

What previous attempts at negotiations and mediation have taken place?

• In the initial weeks of the conflict, both parties engaged in talks for temporary ceasefires to establish humanitarian corridors.
• The talks were first held in Belarus and Turkey but broke down as evidence of war atrocities and attacks on civilians increased.
• The International Criminal Court at The Hague has issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin in relation to the conflict.
• Multiple countries and blocs have shown a willingness to become mediators between the two parties, offering their own roadmaps for peace.

What was China’s proposed peace plan for the Ukraine crisis?

• China’s 12-point plan, released in February, aimed at a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.
• The plan expressed support for the territorial integrity of states and the principles of the UN Charter.
• It also called for the cessation of hostilities and the resumption of dialogue between the conflicting parties.
• However, the plan was seen as an attempt to placate criticism of China’s silence on Russia’s actions and was perceived as skewed in favor of Moscow.

How did Ukraine and Russia respond to China’s peace plan?

• Ukraine rejected China’s 12-point plan outright, as it did not adequately address its concerns and demands.
• Russia saw the plan as a potential basis for certain peace processes but found some provisions, like a ceasefire, to be “impossible” to implement.
• China’s paper was also seen as an attempt to position itself as a responsible power in the Global South and the UN Security Council.

What peace initiatives were proposed by African countries and Brazil?

• In June, seven African countries proposed a 10-point plan, recognizing Russia and Ukraine’s sovereignty and calling for prisoner release.
• The conflict impacted African economies with shortages of grain and fertilizers from Ukraine and Russia.
• Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva suggested a “peace club” of non-involved countries to mediate discussions between Russia and Ukraine, aiming to restore Brazil’s global relevance after Bolsonaro’s regime.

What is known about the upcoming talks in Jeddah?

• The talks are seen as a constructive way of promoting third-party mediation by players apart from the West.
• Observers are not expecting an overall breakthrough in achieving peace, given the entrenched positions of both Russia and Ukraine.
• Russia, which rejected Ukraine’s peace plan, is not among those invited, but it has expressed interest in understanding the meeting’s goals.
• Any attempt to promote a peaceful settlement deserves a positive evaluation, according to the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov.