On Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Kursk

Sub: IR

Sec: Places in news

Context:

On 6^th August this year, Ukraine had launched a surprise incursion into Russia’s southwestern province of Kursk, in the first ground invasion of the country or the erstwhile Soviet Union since World War II.

Implications of the attack

For Russia:
- The attack caught Moscow off-guard and raised questions of an intelligence failure.
For Ukraine:
- Ukraine is clearly on the back foot in its war with Russia. The incursion in Kursk was, in a way, its last attempt to alter battle dynamics.
- The attack has proved to its arms suppliers and the rest of the world that Moscow has its vulnerabilities.

Rationale behind the attack:

It could be seen as a diversion tactic employed to force Russia to shift its forces from the ongoing offensive in the east or Kharkiv.
Ukraine explained it as a move to create a buffer zone that would prevent further attacks from Russia across the border.
If Kyiv manages to hold on to the buffer zone it has created through the territorial advancement made into Kursk, it may also act as leverage in the eventuality of any future negotiations with Moscow.
Ukraine is facing uncertainties regarding its western allies with US is going for polls this year and Germany planning to cut down aid. This leaves very few options for the country.

The Russian response:

Russia has not given a direct response to the incursion into its soil and tried to down play it initially.
Russia has not tried to put a halt to the incursion in Kursk. Rather, it has kept its focus on areas where it already had momentum and was making advancements.
Since the Kursk incursion, Russia has made significant gains on Ukrainian towns of Pokrovsk and Niu-York which are Ukraine’s logistics hubs.

What lies ahead?

While Ukraine has shifted the narrative of the war through the surprise incursion, it remains to be seen what it will gain from the move in the long term.
It is unclear whether Russia will launch a counter-offensive or not.