Preparing for Disease X: A Global Challenge

Preparing for Disease X: A Global Challenge

Sub : Sci

Sec: Health

Why in News

The recent outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in December 2024, which has claimed over 400 lives, remains unclassified and has raised concerns about the potential emergence of Disease X. This unsettling development highlights the need for heightened global preparedness against unforeseen health threats.

What is Disease X?

• Disease X is a placeholder term coined by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2018 to signify an unknown pathogen capable of causing a global epidemic or pandemic.
• It represents “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns” in public health, acknowledging the inevitability of future pandemics without specifying their nature, origin, or timing.
• Potential Causes:
  • Pathogen X: Could originate from a virus, bacterium, parasite, fungi, helminth, or prion.
  • Zoonotic Spillover: About 70% of emerging infectious diseases since 1940 have zoonotic origins, often linked to deforestation, human encroachment, and intensive agriculture.
  • Other Risks: Antimicrobial resistance, bioterrorism, and accidental lab leaks.
• Historical Background: The concept emerged after the West African Ebola epidemic (2014–2016), which caused over 11,000 deaths and exposed gaps in global epidemic preparedness.
• COVID-19 is regarded as the first real instance of Disease X, exemplifying an unpredictable, novel threat requiring rapid global response.
• WHO’s Priority Pathogen List (2018): Focuses on diseases with epidemic or pandemic potential and insufficient medical countermeasures.
• Examples: Ebola virus, Marburg virus, Nipah virus, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Zika virus, Rift Valley fever, and Disease X.

Patterns in Emerging Diseases

• Diseases like HIV, SARS, MERS, and Ebola have origins linked to human-induced ecological disruptions.
• Deforestation, urbanization, and climate change increase human-wildlife contact, facilitating pathogen transmission.
• Areas with high biodiversity and inadequate healthcare systems, such as the Congo Basin, are particularly vulnerable.
• International travel and trade amplify the risk of local outbreaks escalating into global pandemics.

Challenges of Predicting Disease X

• Unpredictability Factors: Zoonotic diseases are the most likely source. Pathogens may mutate to evade treatments, or outbreaks could arise from laboratory accidents or bioterrorism.
• Role of Climate Change: Alters disease transmission dynamics and expands the range of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue.
• Scientific Limitations: Only a fraction of human-infecting viruses have been identified. Over 1.7 million undiscovered viruses exist in wildlife, with hundreds of thousands potentially capable of infecting humans.

Strategies for Preparedness

• Technological Advances: Genomic sequencing and artificial intelligence aid in identifying and analysing potential pathogens.
• Strengthening Healthcare Systems: Focus on low- and middle-income countries to improve outbreak detection and response.
• Surveillance Systems: Real-time data sharing and robust monitoring systems are essential for early outbreak detection.
• WHO Initiatives: The Pandemic Treaty and the priority pathogen list aim to foster a unified global response to health emergencies.
• Frameworks for Equitable Sharing: Protocols like the Nagoya Protocol can be expanded to include biological materials like pathogens, ensuring fair access to research and medical countermeasures.

Important Terms:

• What is Prion: A prion is a misfolded protein capable of causing severe neurological diseases.
  • It is distinct from viruses or bacteria as it contains no genetic material.
  • Examples of prion diseases include Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (CJD) and Mad Cow Disease (BSE).
  • Prions can trigger abnormal folding of specific proteins in the brain, leading to brain damage.
• Pandemic Treaty: The Pandemic Treaty is a proposed international agreement by the WHO to ensure a unified global response to health emergencies.
  • Aims to improve preparedness, response, and resilience for future pandemics.
  • Focuses on equitable access to diagnostics, vaccines, and treatments worldwide.
  • Promotes data sharing, collaboration, and resource pooling among nations.
• Nagoya Protocol: An international agreement under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).
  • Ensures fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the utilization of genetic resources.
  • Aims to promote conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of biological resources.
  • Encourages international collaboration in research and access to genetic materials, including during health emergencies like pandemics.