Pulses Prices May Spiral as Deficient Rain Mars Sowing

Subject :Geography

Section: Economic geography

Context

Impending risk of rising pulse prices due to deficient monsoon affecting sowing.
Pulses’ inflation surged to 13.3% in July, up from 10.6% in June.
Vegetables’ prices are cooling, but pulses could cause the next inflation surge.

Impact of Deficient Monsoon on Pulse Sowing

Sowing area for pulses in the Kharif season decreased by almost 10% compared to the previous year.
Total sown area for dals, including tur and moong dal, reported at 114.9 lakh hectares.
Poor and inadequate rainfall adversely affects sowing.
Sowing of urad decreased by 6.4%, while tur saw a substantial drop of 15.3%
Prices of pulses like tur dal and moong dal surged by 34.1% and 9.1% respectively in July.
Lower sowing rates and increased demand contribute to expectations of elevated price levels.

Comparison with Cereals and Rice Sowing

Cereals and rice sowing experienced a slight increase of 1.6% and 4.3% respectively.
Favourable sowing conditions and recovery in cereals and rice could help moderate their price rise in the coming months.

Monsoon and Reservoir Levels

Southwest monsoon precipitation stands at 6% below the long-period average (LPA).
Several regions, including Central, Southern Peninsula, and East/Northeastern, continue to experience deficient rainfall.
Reservoir levels at 62% of capacity as of August 17, 2023, compared to 76% during the previous season.

What’s Behind Retail Inflation in India in 2023?

Inflation Mutations and Tomato Price Shock
- Tomato prices impact inflation, leading to potential cascading effects on other vegetables.
- While core inflation moderates, headline inflation is still anticipated to average above 6% in the second quarter.
Global geopolitical tensions contribute to increased prices of agricultural commodities, metals, and energy, influencing core inflation.

Inflation Impact Across States

Retail inflation exhibits regional disparities across states and Union Territories.
Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Rajasthan, Manipur, and more witness higher inflation rates than the national average.
Eastern and Northeastern states demonstrate more favourable inflation rates, while Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh exhibit lower inflation levels.

Crop Classification Based on the growing season

Kharif/Rainy/Monsoon crops	Rabi/winter/cold seasons crops	Summer/Zaid crops
The crops are grown in the monsoon months	The crops are grown in the winter season	Crops grown in summer
Sown before monsoon and harvested at the end of the monsoon	Sown before retreating monsoon and harvested before summer.	Sown and harvested in summer
June to Oct-Nov	Oct to March	March to June
Require warm, wet weather at major periods of crop growth	Crops grow well in cold and dry weather	Require warm dry weather for major growth periods
E.g. Cotton, Rice, Jowar, Bajara etc.	E.g. Wheat, gram, sunflower etc.	E.g. Groundnuts, Watermelon, Pumpkins, Gourds etc.

Pulses are grown in all three seasons:

Kharif: Arhar (Tur), Urd (Blackgram), Moong (Green gram), Lobia (Cowpea), Kulthi (Horsegram), and Moth
Rabi: Gram, Lentil, Pea, Lathyrus, and Rajmash
Summer: Greengram, Blackgram, and Cowpea