The patterns of global warming are more important than its levels

Subject: Geography

Section: Climatology

Rising global temperature:

A recent study has reignited debates about whether the Earth’s surface temperature has surpassed the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold above pre-industrial levels.
This research, conducted by scientists in Australia and the U.S., utilized palaeo-thermometry to estimate past temperatures, suggesting that the average global temperature has indeed exceeded the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark.
However, the study’s findings are based on data from a single location, which the researchers then extrapolated to reflect global temperature trends, presenting a significant limitation.

What is Palaeo-thermometry?

Palaeo-thermometry, or ‘palaeo proxies,’ is a method that relies on chemical evidence found in organic materials like corals, stalactites, and stalagmites to estimate past temperatures.
Although this technique offers valuable insights into historical climate conditions, it provides indirect evidence and does not measure actual temperatures.
These proxies indicate past temperature deviations rather than direct temperature measurements, utilizing the relationship between specific chemical compounds in biogenic materials and the local temperatures at the time of their formation.
By analyzing the chemical composition of ancient biogenic materials and the decay rate of certain isotopes, scientists can infer local temperature anomalies from the past.
However, these findings represent highly localized temperature changes and cannot be used to make precise claims about minor deviations in past global temperatures compared to instrumental records.

No explanations for patterns:

The discourse surrounding the crossing of the 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming threshold lacks clear explanations for exceptional warming and its connection to specific climatic events or disasters.
Moreover, there is a significant gap in understanding the warming patterns associated with exceeding this threshold, as well as global warming at any level.
This knowledge is crucial for effectively managing the disasters linked to global warming.
Additionally, the dynamics of the 2023 monsoons, including their amount and distribution, remain unexplained, especially regarding the interactions between the El Niño phenomenon, its atypical pattern, and global warming.
Interestingly, the Indian subcontinent experienced notable cooling in 2023.

El-Nino as a warming paradigm:

The tropical Pacific Ocean alternates between absorbing heat during normal and La Niña years and releasing it during El Niño years, resulting in temporary global warming effects known as teleconnections.
These effects demonstrate the importance of warming patterns, as the location of El Niño warming—whether in the eastern Pacific or near the international dateline—significantly influences its impact on the monsoon and other global regions.
Moreover, the El Niño teleconnections themselves alter the warming pattern, contributing to different climatic outcomes.
- For example, droughts may influence temperature changes more significantly than floods in some cases.
The current heavy rainfall and snowfall in California, driven by El Niño, are likely intensified by global warming, with these precipitation levels further affecting local and global temperatures.
Similarly, the broader pattern of global warming, triggered by human-made greenhouse gases, results in amplified warming in the Arctic and Middle East deserts but reduced warming over the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic oceans.
The specific effects of local warmings and coolings, along with their magnitudes, determine the combined impact of natural variability and global warming in any given area.

Source: TH