The problem of equity in IPCC reports

Subject: Environment

Section: Int Conventions

Context:

In a study, researchers analysed more than 500 future emissions scenarios the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessed in its latest reports. These scenarios relate to mitigation actions like reducing carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels and increasing carbon sequestration through forestry.
It found that across all 556 scenarios, income, energy-use, and emissions disparities between developed and developing countries are projected to continue up to 2050.

What are IPCC assessment reports?

IPCC reports comprise three Working Group reports: one on physical science, one on climate adaptation, and one on mitigation action.
One synthesis report consolidates findings from the three Working Group reports.
Then there are thematic special reports.
- Each report assesses climate-related scientific literature to capture the state of scientific, technical, and socio-economic knowledge on climate change.
The IPCC is currently in its Seventh Assessment cycle (AR7).

How does it assess future scenarios?

IPCC employs “modelled pathways” created using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to forecast how to limit Earth’s surface warming.
IAMs are sophisticated models integrating various aspects like human and Earth systems, macroeconomics, energy consumption, land-use changes, and climate evolution through physics laws.
They aim to offer policy-relevant advice for climate action by examining potential future scenarios across different disciplines.
Despite their comprehensive approach, IAMs have limitations, including a focus on least-cost assessments, which may not account for equitable action burden sharing among countries.
Critics suggest that wealthier nations should adopt more immediate and significant mitigation efforts to distribute responsibilities fairly.

What did the new study finds?

The study analyzed556 scenarios from the IPCC’s AR6 report, revealing projected economic and environmental inequities between the Global North and the Global South.
They found that per-capita GDP in regions home to 60% of the world’s population, including Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and parts of Asia, would remain below the global average by 2050.
Additionally, the study highlighted disparities in consumption of goods, services, energy, and fossil fuels, with developing countries expected to rely more on carbon sequestration from land-based sinks and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies compared to developed countries.
This implies that poorer nations would shoulder the heavier burden of mitigation actions and carbon dioxide removal.
The authors criticize the scenarios for overlooking the historical responsibility of the Global North and the future energy needs of the Global South for development.

Why does equity matter?

Equity is crucial in addressing climate change as it’s rooted in the principles of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), specifically under Article 3, emphasizing “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.”
This means while global action is necessary to combat climate change,wealthier countries should lead the efforts due to their greater capacity and historical emissions.
Current mitigation pathways, often developed through Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), may not align with these equity principles, focusing instead on global technical and economic feasibility without adequately considering the distribution of responsibilities.
The principle of equity suggests that developed regions should aim for net negative emissions to allocate the remaining carbon budget to less developed regions, supporting their development goals.
However, current scenarios often depict the opposite, with less developed regions bearing a larger share of mitigation actionsand carbon dioxide removal.
The study highlights the need for constructing IPCC scenarios that are both equitable and environmentally sound, advocating for a shift towards modelling and scenario-building techniques that prioritize equity and climate justice, addressing this significant gap in emissions modelling.

Source: TH