Why are talks on 1.5°C at a cliff edge at COP27?

Subject :Environment

Context-

Scientific reports from the UN point to the extremely narrow window available to close the emissions gap and prevent the rise in average temperature beyond 1.5°C.

Why is the 1.5°C goal seeming unattainable?

The UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2022 says, even if all the conditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) followed by targets to reduce emissions to net zero are implemented, global warming is projected to rise to 1.8°C with a 66% probability.
The report also points out that global annual emissions during 2021 at 52.8 Gigatonnes (GtCO2e), represents a slight increase compared to 2019, the pre-COVID year.
Key tipping points are the potential Greenland ice sheet collapse, West Antarctic ice sheet collapse, thawing of the boreal permafrost, and tropical coral reef die offs, all of which are expected to happen at 1.5°C.
Tipping points represent moments that cascade into irreversible changes, with a domino effect on other elements such as monsoons and heat waves.

What do scientific reports say on the fallout?

The COP27 is described as the ‘Implementation CoP’.
Official reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights the nations whose national pledges fall well short of the reductions needed.
The latest Sixth Assessment Report (SAR) of the IPCC says that biodiversity loss, Arctic ice loss, threat to coastal settlements and infrastructure will all be experienced, while conflicts, migration of affected people and urban challenges to energy and water access could also arise.
Beyond 2040 and until the end of the century, at 2°C rise in global average temperature, up to 20% decline in snowmelt water for irrigation, diminished water for farming and human settlements due to glacier mass loss, and a two-fold increase in flood damage could happen, while up to 18% of species on land could go extinct.
In tropical regions, there can be an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as cyclones.

What is the focus of negotiations at COP27?

Countries most affected by the effects of a changing climate have been seeking loss and damage payments from the richer industrialised nations, who have contributed the bulk of CO2 in the atmosphere.

The emissions background is explained as follows:

CO2 level at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii stood at 416.22 parts per million (ppm) on November 11.
The level was 315 ppm in 1958 and the pre-industrial revolution level was 280 ppm.
The emerging economies and small climate-affected countries argue that they were not responsible for this stock of CO2, and many want a massive loss and damage fund created, separate from the $100 bn per year agreed to under the Paris Agreement.