Will Myanmar rebel offensive change EU approach to conflict

Subject : IR

Section: Places in news

Context: A major offensive against Myanmar’s military-run government by an alliance of three militias of ethnic minorities

What is the issue:

Myanmar has been in flames ever since the military seized power on February 1, 2021
The Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), armed civilian groups, have joined hands against the military, aligning with the self-declared National Unity Government in exile.
In intense clashes, they successfully took control of two towns near the India-Myanmar border, i.e. Rikhawdar, close to Zokhawthar in Mizoram, and

Khampat in Sagaing region, around 60 km from Moreh in Manipur causing a refugee influx into Mizoram.

The recent conflict, known as Operation 1027, initiated by the Three Brotherhood Alliance on October 27 in Shan State, resulted in the capture of over 100 military outposts and crucial border towns.
The alliance is a front of three EAOs:
- the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA),
- the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and
- the Arakan Army.
Chinshwehaw, a vital point on the China-Myanmar border trade route and a key revenue source for the junta, was among the seized locations.
Simultaneously, local resistance forces ignited fighting in various parts of the country.
Khampat in Sagaing region is also part of the proposed India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway project.

More about the news:

The recent offensive by the “Three Brotherhood Alliance” in Myanmar, composed of three ethnic armed organizations, known as “Operation 1027,” has not led to a major shift in Western policy towards the ongoing conflict, despite reports suggesting it could be a turning point
Some observers suggest this offensive could be the beginning of the end for the junta, but Western governments are taking a cautious “wait-and-see” approach.
The National Unity Government (NUG), established after the coup, is trying to garner support from ethnic armed organizations.
The EU stated it is closely monitoring the situation, which could be a turning point, but it’s too early to draw firm conclusions.

What does the opposition want from the West:

The National Unity Government (NUG) of Myanmar has been in communication with the European Union (EU), updating them on the ongoing offensive against the military junta.
The NUG previously issued the “Prague Appeal,” outlining its vision for a post-war federal democracy and urging the EU to recognize the NUG and evolving state governments as Myanmar’s legitimate authorities.
The EU has responded with humanitarian aid, releasing around €68 million this year, and imposing seven rounds of sanctions targeting individuals and entities linked to the military junta.
The EU emphasizes the need for an end to hostilities, respect for international humanitarian law, and the creation of an inclusive and democratic federal governance system in Myanmar.

What comes next for Myanmar:

Concerns persist regarding the balance of power within the anti-junta movement in Myanmar, particularly as much of the recent fighting has been carried out by ethnic militias not formally aligned with the National Unity Government (NUG).
While the European Union (EU) and European governments express support for inclusive dialogue involving all parties, including ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), uncertainty remains about how to engage with these militias due to limited past contact.
While no high-level meetings between the NUG and European officials are currently scheduled, the NUG’s foreign minister and representatives from some EAOs visited Lithuania to meet local parliamentarians.
An anonymous EU diplomatic source emphasized the necessity of genuinely inclusive dialogue that involves both EAOs and the NUG.
The military junta’s repression has consistently faced opposition, leading to concerns for the junta’s stability.