Declining Fertility Levels in India

Declining Fertility Levels in India

Sub : Geo

Sec : Human Geo

Context:–  A comprehensive demographic analysis of global fertility in 204 countries and territories from 1950-2021 has found that fertility is declining globally and that future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide, remaining low even under successful implementations of pro-natal policies.

What is TFR (Total Fertility Rate)?

• The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman would have during her reproductive years, assuming she experiences the prevailing fertility rates of a specific period.
• A TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement level, meaning the population will remain stable without migration if every woman has, on average, 2.1 children.

Trends of TFR in India:

• Historical Perspective: In the 1950s, India had a high TFR of 6.18. Over the decades, this has declined steadily due to socio-economic changes and family planning initiatives.
• Current Level: The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021 study notes that India’s TFR was 1.9 in 2021, below the replacement level of 2.1.
• Future Projections: By 2100, the TFR in India is expected to drop further to 1.04, indicating an average of barely one child per woman.

Reasons for Declining Fertility:

• Female Empowerment:
  • Increased female literacy.
  • Greater workforce participation.
  • Changing societal norms, with women prioritizing careers and financial independence over early marriage and motherhood.
• Changing Attitudes:
  • Preference for late marriage or choosing not to marry.
  • Reduced desire for large families.
• Migration:
  • Increased migration for education and employment, leading to delayed or reduced family formation.

Supra – State Divide in Fertility levels

Southern states such as Kerala, Tami Nadu, and Karnataka achieved replacement-level fertility much earlier than northern states.

Eg. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have relatively higher Total Fertility Rates (TFR) at 3.0 and 2.4, respectively. In contrast, southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu have significantly lower TFRs of approximately 1.8 and 1.4, respectively.

Implications of Declining Fertility:

• Ageing Population:
  • Demographic transition with a rising elderly population and declining youth workforce.
  • Increased demand for healthcare and social security.
• Economic Challenges:
  • Shrinking labor force affecting economic productivity.
• Social Challenges:
  • Increased pregnancy-related health issues due to delayed motherhood.
  • Changing family structures with fewer children to support ageing parents.
• Regional Concerns:
  • Southern states with TFR less than 2.1 are facing several challenges such as:-
• Ageing Population: The proportion of elderly residents in Kerala is rapidly increasing. By 2036, the aged population is projected to surpass the number of children, accounting for 23% of the state’s population.
• High Migration: Educated youth frequently migrate to other states or countries in search of better opportunities. This “brain drain” leaves behind a shrinking young workforce to support the economy and care for the ageing population.
• Low Birth Rate: This has also resulted in an increasing number of older mothers, contributing to pregnancy-related morbidities and additional healthcare challenges.