El Nino: Malawi’s harvest of maize – its staple food – may fall by 22.5% this year

Subject: Geography

Section: Climatology

Context:

Maize is a critical staple in southern Africa, particularly in Malawi, where it accounts for two-thirds of the national calorie intake.

Details of the study:

The study focuses on the impact of El Nino, an abnormal warming in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, on maize production in Malawi.
Using historical crop data and records of El Nino events since the 1980s, the researchers found that two-thirds of El Nino events correlate with a significant reduction in maize harvests, averaging a 22.5% decrease.
Such a decline in maize production can lead to severe consequences, including widespread reliance on food aid, disruptions in maize markets, and economic challenges for both rural and urban households.
The study suggests implementing social protection programs, such as cash transfers or government food aid and advises policymakers to prepare for El Nino impacts by importing maize and seeking international assistance.
The researchers also recommend policies to help farmers install irrigation systems and diversify their income sources beyond traditional farming.
The current El Nino, predicted to be one of the strongest in 40 years, is occurring alongside a strong Indian Ocean Dipole, another climate event that can exacerbate El Nino’s effects.

Can Malawi’s farmers prevent devastating losses?

Some mitigation strategies include planting with the earliest effective rains, growing early maturing crops, implementing farming techniques to enhance water infiltration into the soil (such as digging small holes near crops), cultivating more drought-resistant crops, and using organic manure to improve soil moisture retention.
However, these measures might not be sufficient.
- While importing maize from neighbouring countries is a common solution, poor harvests across the entire region could limit the availability of maize for both informal and formal cross-border trade.

The urgent steps that the government can take in response to the potential impacts of El Nino on agriculture and the economy include:

The government should include impoverished urban populations in social protection programs. While cash transfers can be beneficial, they must be managed carefully to avoid exacerbating food shortages and increasing prices due to higher demand and limited supply.
Policymakers need to closely monitor the impacts of El Nino and be prepared to respond quickly and effectively as the situation evolves.
The government should make arrangements in advance to import maize swiftly in case of a domestic shortfall, thereby ensuring food availability.
Given Malawi’s challenging macroeconomic and fiscal situation, international support may be necessary to finance food imports.

El Nino refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific. It is associated with high pressure in the western Pacific. El Nino adversely impacts the Indian monsoons and hence, agriculture in India.

Impact of El Nino:

Impact on Ocean: El Nino impacts ocean temperatures, the speed and strength of ocean currents, the health of coastal fisheries, and local weather from Australia to South America and beyond.
Increased Rainfall: Convection above warmer surface waters brings increased precipitation.
- Rainfall increases drastically in South America, contributing to coastal flooding and erosion.
Diseases caused by Floods and Droughts: Diseases thrive in communities devastated by natural hazards such as floods or drought.
- El Nino-related flooding is associated with increases in cholera, dengue, and malaria in some parts of the world, while drought can lead to wildfires that create respiratory problems.

Source: DTE