Fertility levels drop below one in many Asian nations

Fertility levels drop below one in many Asian nations

Subject: Geography

Section: Human geography

Context:

• East and Southeast Asian countries are experiencing declining birth rates and record-low fertility rates, causing some hospitals in China to cease newborn delivery services.

Details:

• Between 1950 and 1970, the fertility rates in these regions ranged from 3.5 to 7.5 children per woman.
• Notably, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan have fertility rates lower than one child per woman, indicating that many women are having one child or none at all.
• Chart 1 details the fertility rates over time in China, Japan, and four other countries, showing a significant decline compared to other countries with low fertility like Ukraine, Finland, Italy, and Spain.
• Policy Impact:
  • The sharp decline in China’s fertility rate, for instance, is largely attributed to strict family planning policies. Similar policies in South Korea and Singapore also significantly influenced birth rates.
• Factors Contributing to Low Fertility:
  • Increased career opportunities for women, higher costs of child-rearing, and the economic impact of maternity on careers have all contributed to declining birth rates.
• Aging Population:
  • In Japan, a third of the population was over 65 by 2023. South Korea and Hong Kong are projected to reach similar demographics by the early 2030s, showing a rapid ageing trend.
• Government Responses:
  • Governments have introduced costly programs to encourage childbirth.
  • South Korea alone has spent $211 billion since 2006, yet the fertility rates have not improved significantly.
• Mass Social Initiatives: In an attempt to address the falling birth rates, cities like Seongnam in South Korea have organized mass blind dates.

India’s scenario:

Current TFR and Sex Ratio:

• TFR Decline: India’s TFR has decreased from 2.2 in 2015-16 to 2.0 at the national level, with variations observed between urban (1.6) and rural areas (2.1).
• Sex Ratio: NFHS-5 reports a sex ratio of 1,020 women per 1,000 men, a notable deviation from previous surveys.
• TFR Target: Replacement level fertility, set at 2.1, ensures each generation replaces itself. An additional 0.1 child per woman accounts for infant mortality.

Implications of TFR in India:

• Population Stability: A TFR of 2.0 indicates stable long-term population trends, with two parents replaced by two children.
• Future Growth: India may not experience population decline for 30-40 years due to a substantial youth population.

Reasons for Fertility Decline:

• Education: Higher female education levels contribute to fertility decline.
• Economic Factors: Increased mobility, late marriages, and financial independence influence family planning decisions.
• Family Planning Programs: Enhanced access to family planning methods and higher contraceptive prevalence rates play a role.

Source: TH