Limits To Growth

Subject: Environment

Section: Sustainable Development

Context: Resource depletion

Concept-

The club of Rome was formed in 1968 in Rome to study the common futures of earth.
In 1972, the club of Rome released a paper “limit to growth”. Under this paper, a detailed analysis was done on mankind’s sustainability whether mankind will sustain it in the long run or not. The club of Rome also did a detailed study on Malthus’s theory on population and gave a report on world resources and the ability to absorb the pollution.

What is the limit to growth?

Limit of growth theory says nature had set a limit beyond the limit development cannot possible.
The limit to growth model was developed by D. H. Meadows on the basis of system dynamic principle.
The basic assumption in this model:
- We have limited resources available on earth.
- Limited agricultural land
- Earth has a limited capacity to consume the pollution
- The model also gives the importance of technology & innovation to change productivity.
- The model does not give much importance to recycling & pollution control mechanism
There are five variables or input used in this model:
- Population
- Pollution
- Per capita food availability
- Per capita industrial production
- Natural resources or non-renewable resources

The output will differ with Changes in these five variables. For example, if the population is increasing then per capita food availability will decrease. If industrial production is increasing then pollution will be increasing
The theory is based on the thesis that “the continued growth leads to infinite quantities that just do not fit into a finite world.” This basic idea has been elaborated in a highly complicated model which cannot be easily described in equation form.
Among the various relationships, there are “feedback loops” that register the effects of changes in one variable such as food production on another variable like population growth.
For example, population growth is positively related to food production, But food production is negatively related to pollution, and pollution, in turn, is positively related to industrial output.
The model also uses past data on such factors as growth rates of population, industrial output, and agricultural production, and the estimates of rates of technological progress. These factors would lead to the use of new resources, raise agricultural productivity, and control pollution.

Criticisms:

The Limits to Growth (LTG) was an alarming report predicting the collapse of the world economy in the 21st century.
It does not account for the infinite possibilities in human innovation.
The prediction was based on data and computer simulation techniques which could not have been so refined, exact, and sophisticated like that of today.