The value of attributing extreme events to climate change
- May 23, 2024
- Posted by: OptimizeIAS Team
- Category: DPN Topics
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The value of attributing extreme events to climate change
Sub: Science and tech
Sec: Defence
Evolution of Extreme Event Attribution:
- Previously, the IPCC argued against attributing individual weather events to climate change.
- Now, researchers attribute some extreme events to climate change despite uncertainties.
Value of Extreme Event Attribution:
- Attribution is seen as critical for the loss and damage (L&D) process in climate talks.
- Developing countries demand L&D funding to cope with climate impacts, but criteria for eligibility are crucial.
- Attribution reports could inform legal accountability for extreme events, but challenges remain.
Attribution of Asian Heatwaves:
- World Weather Attribution (WWA) reported that Asian heatwaves were 45 times more likely due to climate change.
- Attribution involves comparing current conditions with a hypothetical world without climate change.
- Data limitations and challenges in modelling rainfall affect attribution reliability.
Challenges in Event Selection:
- Selecting extreme events for attribution is challenging due to various factors.
- In evaluating Asian heatwaves, WWA scientists used regional scales and various definitions, considering daily, three-day, or monthly average temperatures.
- Heatwaves can be influenced by natural factors (e.g., El Niño) and human factors (e.g., urbanization, deforestation).
- There is debate over whether irrigation affects heatwaves.
- Extreme events are unique and often have no exact precedent, making subcontinent-scale attributions easier than local ones.
Dependency of Extreme Events on Human Action:
- The impacts of extreme events depend on hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and financial factors.
- Questions arise whether attribution exercises should focus solely on hazards or also consider impacts.
International Finance and Adaptation:
- Consideration of international finance aspects is necessary for adaptation, mitigation, and L&D.
- Historical responsibilities should be addressed to fund developing countries and support global mitigation efforts.
Resource Constraints and Cost-Benefit Analysis:
- In a resource-constrained world, a cost-benefit analysis is needed for the role of attribution in climate action.
- While attribution is a scientific challenge, its practical application requires careful consideration of costs and benefits.
World Weather Attribution (WWA):
- WWA is an international collaboration of climate scientists conducting rapid assessments to determine the role of climate change in extreme weather events.
- Collaborative Effort: Involves scientists from Imperial College London (UK), KNMI (Netherlands), IPSL/LSCE (France), Princeton University and NCAR (US), ETH Zurich (Switzerland), IIT Delhi (India), and climate impact specialists from the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC).
- Objective: Provide timely, scientifically rigorous information on links between extreme weather and climate change.
- Inform policymakers, media, and the public about climate change impacts and the need for mitigation.
- Methodology:
- Uses a standardized, transparent approach comparing the likelihood and severity of weather events in current climate conditions versus a world without climate change.
- Collaborates globally, with all results peer-reviewed for scientific accuracy.
- Three-Part Response to Extreme Events:
- Define the Event: Identify the geographic region and relevant weather parameters.
- Gather Historical Data: Collect weather data from 1950 to the present to compute statistics on normal and extreme weather patterns.
- Simulate the Event: Use computer models to simulate the event multiple times, comparing current greenhouse gas conditions to past conditions.
Source: TH