Enhancing India’s Weather Forecasting Capabilities: A Strategic Upgrade
- August 28, 2024
- Posted by: OptimizeIAS Team
- Category: DPN Topics
Enhancing India’s Weather Forecasting Capabilities: A Strategic Upgrade
Sub: Geo
Sec: Climatology
Why in News?
India’s weather department, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), is set to undergo a significant upgrade, aimed at improving its ability to forecast localized and extreme weather events.
With a proposed budget of at least Rs 10,000 crore, this mission will build on the progress made since the launch of the Monsoon Mission in 2012.
The Need for an Upgrade
Despite improvements over the past decade, IMD still struggles with accurate local-level predictions. This was evident in July when IMD’s rainfall forecasts for Mumbai were off the mark on about 40% of the days.
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, driven by climate change, has further exposed these limitations, necessitating a major upgrade in forecasting capabilities.
The Science of Weather Forecasting
Forecasting in tropical regions like India is inherently complex due to the high variability of weather phenomena.
Larger weather systems, such as cyclones and monsoons, are easier to predict than localized or sudden events like cloudbursts.
This inherent uncertainty is compounded when attempting to make more precise or earlier predictions.
Need for Precision in Forecasts
IMD currently forecasts weather over a 12 km x 12 km grid, which is too broad for accurate city-specific predictions. The goal is to achieve hyper-local forecasts for areas as small as 1 km x 1 km. These would be crucial for disaster preparedness and daily planning.
Infrastructure and Technological Advancements
Previous upgrades focused on infrastructure, including the installation of high-performance computing systems and Doppler radars.
The current upgrade will focus on developing India-specific weather models that can better simulate local conditions. This will require research and regional assessments of climate change.
About IMD:
Formation: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) was established in 1875.
Location: The headquarters of IMD is located in New Delhi, India.
Motto: The motto of IMD is “Weather Services for Safety and Prosperity.”
Head: The current Director General of IMD is Mrutyunjay Mohapatra (as of 2024).
150 Years of Service: IMD will complete 150 years of service in 2025, marking a significant milestone in its history.
Significant Contributions:
- Development of the Monsoon Mission in 2012
- Installation of Doppler radars for improved observation and monitoring of weather patterns.
- Ongoing mission with a proposed budget of Rs 10,000 crore to enhance localized and extreme weather predictions.
- Accurate cyclone forecasting since 2013, significantly reducing loss of life.
- Continuous improvement in the accuracy of monsoon forecasts over the past decade.
Future Goals:
- Achieving hyper-local forecasts for 1 km x 1 km grids.
- Enhancing disaster early warning systems through advanced modelling and simulations.
About Mission Monsoon:
Launched in 2012, the Monsoon Mission aimed to improve the accuracy of long-range monsoon forecasts, which are crucial for India’s agriculture, water resources, and disaster management.
Key Features:
Advanced Forecasting Models: Introduced dynamical models for better prediction of monsoon patterns.
Improved Accuracy: Significantly increased the accuracy of seasonal monsoon forecasts, aiding in better planning and decision-making.
Enhanced Monitoring: Strengthened India’s ability to monitor and predict monsoon variability, helping mitigate the impacts of climate change.
Doppler Radars:
Doppler radars are advanced weather observation tools that use the Doppler effect to measure the velocity and movement of precipitation particles, such as rain or snow.
How They Function:
Signal Emission: The radar emits radio waves that bounce off precipitation particles.
Signal Return: The radar receives the reflected signals, which are analyzed to determine the speed and direction of the particles.
Weather Monitoring: This data helps in detecting the intensity, location, and movement of storms, aiding in accurate weather forecasts and warnings, especially for severe weather events like cyclones and thunderstorms.
About 1 km x 1 km Grid:
A 1 km x 1 km grid is a small, localized area on the Earth’s surface, measuring 1 kilometer on each side. This grid size is used in meteorological models to provide very detailed weather forecasts.
Benefits:
- Hyper-Local Forecasting: By dividing a region into 1 km x 1 km grids, weather models can provide highly specific forecasts for each grid, allowing for precise predictions of weather events in very small areas.
- Accuracy: It improves the accuracy of weather predictions, such as pinpointing exactly where in a city rainfall or extreme weather might occur.
- Disaster Management: Crucial for early warning systems, helping authorities and individuals prepare more effectively for localized weather events like flash floods or thunderstorms.
What is a Cyclone?
Cyclones are intense low-pressure systems with circular air circulation, rotating counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.
The term “cyclone,” from the Greek cyclos meaning “coil,” was coined by Henry Piddington, who likened tropical storms to coiled serpents.
Classification of Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclones: Form over warm tropical oceans, with winds exceeding 63 km/h and causing heavy rainfall and storm surges.
Extra-Tropical Cyclones: Occur in temperate and polar regions, often associated with frontal systems.
Formation of Tropical Cyclones: Tropical cyclones require:
- Sea surface temperatures above 27°C
- Coriolis force for rotation
- Minimal vertical wind shear
- A pre-existing low-pressure area
- Upper-level atmospheric divergence